Lightning struck just west of Tumamoc Hill in Tucson in this Aug. 23, 2022 photo.  

Circle this date on your calendar if you like local weather stats: July 20. That was the latest *actual start to the annual monsoon rains on record in Tucson, and it happened in 1901.

This season, unless it rains today or tomorrow in Tucson to end a dry streak going back to May 19, it looks like we're in for more waiting. By Friday, July 14, if not sooner, we're expected to head into drier conditions that will last through at least the first half of next week, the National Weather Service says. The Climate Prediction Center says hazardous heat could last at least through July 20 for the region.

The best chances for thunderstorms in Tucson are Monday, July 10, with a 20% chance, and Tuesday, July 11, with a 40% chance, before chances diminish again and moisture is driven to the west of us, said Lance Tripoli, a meteorologist with the weather service here.

The average *actual start date to Tucson's summer monsoons has been between July 1 and July 6 during each decade since the 1950s, so we're already late.

The earliest *actual start was June 17, 2000. Weather records here go back to 1895.

(* Yes, we know how confusing it is that the weather service says the monsoon season in the U.S. Southwest officially runs from June 15 through Sept. 30 each year no matter what the weather's really doing. What we're talking about in this article, by contrast, is the first date that measurable monsoon rain was actually recorded.)

At any rate, once the Tucson area's monsoon storms do start, please send us your photos and videos of them to be featured in an upcoming gallery on tucson.com. Email them to eds@tucson.com.

The Tucson monsoon gave heavy rain and thunder and lightning storms on Aug. 8, 2022. More thunderstorms are expected today in southeast Arizona, according to the National Weather Service.


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