The law of supply and demand is going to drive up the cost of your Thanksgiving dinner this year.
A new report from the Arizona Farm Bureau Federation pegs the cost of a traditional holiday dinner for 10 at $53.38 this year. That compares with $51.89 a year ago.
The biggest driver of that change is the centerpiece of the whole affair: a 16-pound young tom turkey.
Last year, you could pick up such a bird in Arizona for about $1.14 a pound, according to shoppers for the federation. This year, it’s up to $1.21 because of a smaller supply of turkeys.
The U.S. Agriculture Department reported that turkey meat production this year through September was 3.86 billion pounds, a decrease of 6.3% from a year earlier. That in turn is driving up the cost of the bird by slightly more than a dollar.
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The good news is that the avian flu that decimated turkey supplies two years ago appears to no longer be a factor.
The virus led to a large reduction in turkey production in 2022. The ripple effect put the cost of a 16-pound bird that year at $32.03 — compared with $19.36 this year — and upped the cost of the entire 2022 feast to a record $71.88.
Currently, the 2.8% overall increase in the year-over-year price of a Thanksgiving dinner is a bit of a surprise on one front.
Turkey production this year, though September, was down 6.3% from a year earlier. That in turn is driving up the cost for consumers.
The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the overall costs of buying food for home consumption in the Phoenix area — the only Arizona survey it conducts — is up just 0.8% from a year earlier. But that figure tells only part of the story, as it is an aggregate of other elements.
For example, BLS recorded a 3.2% increase in the cost of cereals and bakery products. The price of meats, poultry, fish and eggs overall is 2.5% higher than a year earlier.
By contrast, fruits and vegetables are up just 1.4% — with a 2.9% year-over-year decrease in what consumers are paying for dairy and related products.
Some of those differences are reflected in the prices Farm Bureau Federation shoppers found at Arizona grocery stores.
For example, the cost of purchasing two frozen pie shells — which are made from grains — is up by 58 cents, to $3.32. Yet the 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix to fill those shells can be had for $4.67, a 13-cent decrease.
Despite the fact the BLS finds dairy costs in the past year are down, shoppers are paying more this year than a year ago for both whole milk and whipping cream.
Important to note, however, is that the annual survey is based on the shelf price federation shoppers found when they went to stores. It does not include the additional savings that may be available for customers who hold a grocer’s affinity card.
There are some deals to be had, if you watch the food ads, as grocers cut prices on key items in hopes that will get shoppers into their stores and filling their baskets with everything else.
It is not unusual for the major chains to offer frozen turkeys just ahead of the holiday for 99 cents a pound as an incentive to lure in customers who have the company’s affinity card and who buy at least $25 worth of other groceries.
Fry’s already has Butterball turkeys at that price. Its own Kroger turkeys are being offered at 89 cents a pound.
That often leads to a race to the bottom as competitors are willing to match or beat the deal.
Safeway, for example, has turkeys as low as 87 cents a pound.
But if you’re planning ahead for the big dinner, remember that it takes about four days in the refrigerator — the preferred method — to defrost a 16-pound bird.
Howard Fischer is a veteran journalist who has been reporting since 1970 and covering state politics and the Legislature since 1982. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, and Threads at @azcapmedia or email azcapmedia@gmail.com.
