PHOENIX — The state’s jobless rate is higher for the third month in a row.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June was 5.8 percent. That’s up two-tenths of a point over the prior month and four-tenths of a point over March’s rate.
But the economist who reports the numbers for the state, Doug Walls, says he prefers to look at things on a more long-term basis, meaning year over year.
Using that as a touchstone, the jobless rate is two-tenths of a point lower than a year earlier.
The unemployment numbers are based on a household survey, asking people whether they are employed and, if not, if they’re looking for work.
Walls, research administrator for the state Department of Administration, said he prefers to focus on a separate survey of businesses, which asks them how many people they had on the payroll last month.
On one hand, that report shows the state lost 39,700 jobs between May and June. But most were in local education; the state counts public school employees not on contract as unemployed when school is out.
Private-sector employment gained just 100 jobs. Still, that’s better than most June reports, when private firms normally shed workers.
The report from employers does show the number of people working in the private sector up by 83,000 since June 2015. That 3.8 percent growth rate is double the national average, Walls said.
Asked about Thursday’s report of the third straight month of rising unemployment, Governor’s Office spokesman Daniel Ruiz did not address the 5.8 percent jobless rate.
“Gov. Ducey has been clear from Day One that when it comes to our economy and employment, his focus is on continuous improvement,” said Ruiz. “And that’s what we’re seeing across the board — movement in the right direction.”
Ruiz cited Chief Executive Magazine naming Arizona the sixth best state in the country to do business and Kiplinger ranking Arizona second in the U.S. for job growth.
The brightest spot in Thursday’s report — at least from the data provided by employers — continues to be the state’s healthcare sector.
Fueled by an aging population, health care employment was the lone sector of the economy that never really took a dive during the recession. In the last year alone it added 12,300 workers.
Employment in professional and business services is up by 16,800 workers from a year ago. That includes 5,400 people in employment services, mainly temporary help.
Economist Dennis Hoffman of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University said he’s not terribly concerned about month-over-month changes in employment. He said he looks at the strong year-over-year job growth, particularly the 3.8 percent increase in private sector employment.
However, he’s waiting for some sign that pay is going up, at least to match inflation.
And there are areas of the economy that concern him, including continued weakness in the growth of retail employment, which makes up about one out of every eight jobs in the state.
“Shoppers are just shopping in very different ways,” Hoffman said. “They don’t need to go to department stores with the frequency that they did. You can now just order it online and try it out. And if you don’t like it, return it locally,” essentially making the brick-and-mortar stores into return centers.
