JERUSALEM — Hamas confirmed Friday that its leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza and reiterated its stance that hostages the militant group took from Israel a year ago will not be released until there is a cease-fire in Gaza and a withdrawal of Israeli troops.
The group’s staunch position pushed back against a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin a day earlier that his country’s military will keep fighting until the hostages are released and will remain in Gaza to prevent a severely weakened Hamas from rearming.
The conflicting stands signal continued deep resistance on both sides to ending the war, even as President Joe Biden and other world leaders press the case that Sinwar’s death is a turning point that should be used to unlock stalled cease-fire negotiations.
The standoff comes as Israel’s war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah — a Hamas ally backed by Iran — intensified in recent weeks. Hezbollah said Friday it planned to launch a new phase of fighting by sending more guided missiles and exploding drones into Israel. The militant group’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike late last month, and Israel sent ground troops into Lebanon this month.
Meanwhile, forces in the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon are maintaining their positions despite warnings from Israeli Defense Forces to move away, a spokesman for the U.N. force said Friday.
Andrea Tenenti of UNIFIL, the interim force in Lebanon, said a “unanimous” decision was taken by its 50 troop-contributing countries and the Security Council for it to hold its positions.
Khalil al-Hayya, a high-ranking Hamas official, speaks during an April 24 interview with The Associated Press, in Istanbul, Turkey.
Sinwar, the former lead of Hamas, died “confronting the occupation army until the last moment of his life,” said his Qatar-based deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, who represented Hamas during several rounds of cease-fire negotiations. Hamas will not return any of the hostages, al-Hayya said, “before the end of the aggression on Gaza and the withdrawal from Gaza.”
Hamas heralded Sinwar in a statement, calling him a hero for “not retreating, brandishing his weapon, engaging and confronting the occupation army at the forefront of the ranks.”
The statement appeared to refer to a video the Israeli military circulated of Sinwar’s apparent last moments in which a man sits on a chair in severely damaged building, badly wounded and covered in dust. In the video, the man raises his hand and flings a stick at an approaching Israeli drone.
Yahya Sinwar, former head of Hamas in Gaza, chairs a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions April 13, 2022, at his office in Gaza City.
Sinwar was the chief architect of the Hamas raid on Israel last year that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped another 250. Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, who do not distinguish combatants from civilians but say more than half the dead are women and children.
The war has destroyed vast swaths of Gaza, displaced about 90% of its population of 2.3 million people and left them struggling to find food, water, medicine and fuel.
Sinwar’s killing appeared to be a chance front-line encounter with Israeli troops on Wednesday, and it could shift the dynamics of the Gaza war even as Israel presses its offensive against Hezbollah with ground troops in southern Lebanon and airstrikes in other areas of the country.
Iran, which also supports Hamas, hailed Sinwar Friday as a martyr who can inspire others in challenging Israel.
“We, and countless others around the world, salute his selfless struggle for liberation of the Palestinian people,” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, wrote on social media. “Martyrs live forever, and the cause for liberation of Palestine from occupation is more alive than ever.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 27.
Israel has pledged to destroy Hamas politically in Gaza, and killing Sinwar was a top military priority. But Netanyahu said in a speech announcing the killing Thursday night that “our war is not yet ended.”
Still, the governments of Israel’s allies and exhausted residents of Gaza expressed hope that Sinwar’s death would pave the way for an end to the war.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday Sinwar’s death provides “an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting cease-fire” and suggested the U.S. could have a role in helping to stabilize Gaza in the future.
“Hopefully countries in the region will step up there,” Austin said at a NATO meeting in Brussels.
Palestinians collect food aid June 15 ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip.
In Israel, families of hostages still held in Gaza demanded the Israeli government use Sinwar’s killing as a way to restart negotiations to bring home their loved ones. There are about 100 hostages remaining in Gaza, at least 30 of whom Israel says are dead.
“We are at an inflection point where the goals set for the war with Gaza have been achieved, all but the release of the hostages,” Ronen Neutra, father of the Israeli-American hostage Omer Neutra, said in a video statement. “Sinwar, who was described as a major obstacle to a deal, is no longer alive.”
Netanyahu planned to convene a special meeting Friday to discuss hostage negotiations, an Israeli official with knowledge of the negotiations said on condition of anonymity.
Israel’s military claimed Friday it allowed 30 trucks of food, water, medical and other supplies into northern Gaza, as the country faces pressure from the U.S. to ramp up aid. There was no immediate confirmation from the U.N. that the aid arrived and was being distributed in the north.
Economic factors and currency volatility in the 2024 US presidential election
Economic factors and currency volatility in the 2024 US presidential election
Updated
The U.S. Presidential elections are approaching, and although there are many political and societal factors that may determine the outcome of an election, November 2024 may be affected by economic factors. Voters are closely monitoring the economy due to the high inflation experienced in the aftermath of COVID-19. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times since April 2022. Although inflation has declined from its 2022 peak, it remains a concern in certain sectors, explains OANDA's market analyst Moheb Hanna.
In a year where monetary policy decisions by world central banks continue to dominate headlines, the Federal Reserve has only recently made its first cut since 2020, cutting rates by a staggering 50 basis points. This more "cautious" approach contrasts those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, who opted to reduce interest rates much earlier in the year following a steady decline in inflation indicators.
In the post-COVID period, the U.S. has experienced strong economic growth and a robust job market, outperforming global economies. Recent data, however, indicates that Americans are spending more cautiously, seeking bargains, and reducing leisure spending.
Which Currency Pairs Are Likely to be Most Affected by the Volatility Surrounding the U.S. Presidential Election?
As the world's reserve currency, the U.S. dollar often experiences fluctuations in value due to various factors. This volatility is expected to increase around the U.S. elections as global currencies and commodities are priced against the dollar. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's November meeting, scheduled during the election week, will likely amplify market volatility due to anticipated interest rate decisions and economic announcements.
The anticipated market volatility surrounding the election may present diverse trading opportunities across various currency pairs and timeframes. Prolonged uncertainty or delayed election results could extend this period of heightened volatility, potentially offering even more trading prospects. As the November 2024 presidential election approaches, traders are likely anticipating numerous election-driven trading opportunities in the currency markets. Some traders may also position themselves ahead of the election, therefore, volatility may have already started.
1. USD/MXN: Price action during 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections, Mexico's elections, USMCA agreement and COVID-19
The Mexican peso has been a strong performer over the past two years, primarily due to high interest rates, economic growth, and increased cooperation with U.S. businesses. This has presented a significant carry trade opportunity, with Mexico's interest rate at 11.25% compared to the U.S. dollar's 5.50%. Although the peso has experienced fluctuations, including a 37% rise against the USD from March 2020 to July 2023 and a subsequent rebound to 18.10 in June 2024, it remains an attractive investment for some investors. Pre-election positioning, driven by factors like interest rate differentials and differing inflation rates between the two countries, may influence the USD/MXN exchange rate. Historical trends show varying peso responses to U.S. elections, with potential implications depending on whether Harris or Trump wins. While Harris's win might maintain the status quo, Trump's win could reintroduce tariff concerns. Additionally, Mexico's strong economic ties with the U.S., particularly through the USMCA, add another layer of complexity to the USD/MXN relationship.
2. USD/JPY: Price action during 2016 and 2020 US elections, FOMC Interest Rate hikes and Bank of Japan intervention
In March 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its extensive monetary easing program, including its negative interest rate policies, which had been in place for over eight years. The central bank maintained its interest rate at 0.10%. Traders are now closely watching for any signals from the BOJ regarding quantitative tightening (QT), as the bank is expected to gradually reduce its bond holdings. This process, if not carefully managed, could potentially disrupt the market. To mitigate this, the BOJ might opt to reduce bond purchases at a slower rate than their holding expiration, a strategy requiring cautious execution.
The Japanese yen is currently trading near its lowest point versus the dollar in 38 years, and at a level not seen since 1986, worrying traders. Despite both the U.S. and Japan maintaining their interest rates for a prolonged period, the yen has continued to weaken against the dollar, contributing to market uncertainty. As a result, and in a measure to stop "excessive fluctuations driven by speculation," the Bank of Japan is known to have intervened at least once in recent history, aiming to prop up yen prices. Owing to abnormalities in price action, some traders have speculated that market intervention has happened more than just once, but the BOJ has yet to officially confirm.
Although the BOJ is in a rate-raising mode and the Fed is expected to cut rates, the interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen remains appealing. Carry trades on USD/JPY can still offer returns for long-term investors, though these returns may be lower than other carry trade opportunities. However, they might also involve less risk compared to other available carry trade pairs.
3. EUR/USD: Price action during 2016 and 2020 US elections
The EUR/USD is the most frequently traded currency pair in the foreign exchange markets. During events that impact global markets, like the U.S. elections, the euro tends to be more susceptible to market risks. This is primarily due to changes in U.S. interest rates affecting the U.S. dollar, rather than the euro itself. EU inflation has seen a recent uptick in May 2024, rising to 2.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by energy costs. This follows a period of steady decline since its peak in March/April 2022. The ECB, having already reduced interest rates by 25 basis points on June 6th, 2024, is now faced with the challenge of balancing inflation control with potential future rate cuts. The latest inflation increase, while bringing the indicator closer to pre-pandemic averages, adds complexity to the ECB's decision-making process.
Historically, the euro has reacted to shifts in US leadership. It initially declined under Trump's presidency, falling 8.5% to 1.0320. However, it later rebounded, reaching 1.2550 against the dollar. A sharp drop occurred in early 2018, finding support above 1.0600 during COVID-19, followed by another rise to 1.2200. With Biden's inauguration and the onset of the Ukraine war, coupled with FOMC interest rate hikes, the euro experienced a significant decline of 22.80%, reaching below parity at 0.9600. It has since partially recovered, trading within the 1.0550 – 1.1200 range in early 2023.
4. USD/CAD: Price action during 2016 and 2020 US elections, USMCA agreement and COVID-19
Canada, a major economic partner of the USA, has a highly correlated economy. The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by interest rates in both countries and oil prices, as Canada is a significant oil producer and a member of OPEC+. As Trump took office in January 2017, and when Biden did in January 2021, the Canadian dollar rose significantly against the U.S. dollar as an initial reaction, and in both cases, the exchange price returned to its pre-election levels. Under the Trump administration, the USD/CAD rate remained relatively stable during the negotiation and implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took effect on July 1st, 2020. However, anticipatory market positioning was evident before that.
Canadian inflation has followed global trends, rising post-COVID and then declining sharply after peaking around 8% in mid-2022. By early 2024, key inflation measures remained below 3%. This decline, coupled with weaker-than-expected economic growth, led to anticipation of the Bank of Canada's actions. On June 5, 2024, the Bank of Canada became the first to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized data-driven decision-making for future adjustments.
Despite strong retail sales over the past five years, recent months have shown a decline in specific categories, suggesting consumer caution and potential delays in interest-sensitive purchases. This trend is noteworthy as it coincides with a slowdown in Canada's GDP growth since late 2021.
This story was produced by OANDA and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
