Pima County supervisors have voted to allow developers to more than double housing density in select neighborhoods, a major policy shift aimed at producing the 116,000 housing units the region needs over the next two decades.
The plan, titled Pima Prospers 2025, confronts a stark reality: the county faces an immediate shortfall of 22,000 units, with another 94,000 needed to accommodate population growth through 2045.
The Board of Supervisors approved the measure 4-1 on Oct. 14. Chairman Rex Scott and Supervisors Sharon Bronson, Matt Heinz and Andrés Cano voted in favor.
Supervisor Steve Christy, the lone dissenter, could not be reached for comment.
The plan secured backing from both the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association (SAHBA) and the Coalition for Sonoran Desert Protection — a rare consensus that officials say validates a balanced approach to housing and conservation.
The housing gap
The urgency stems from a widening gap between people and homes.
Between 2017 and 2021, the number of households in the county grew by 9.3%, while housing units increased only 7.3%.
That disparity has driven vacancy rates to critical lows, triggering sharp rent increases. According to research by the University of Arizona’s Drachman Institute, lower-income residents are increasingly cost-burdened, often spending more than a third of their income on rent or mortgages.
Suburban communities are feeling the squeeze acutely, with Oro Valley and Marana falling well below healthy vacancy levels.
Construction continues on a project that will transform the former Foothills Mall, 7401 N. La Cholla Blvd., into a mixed-use development with apartments, retail and entertainment.
The roots of the crisis trace back to the 2008 recession, when construction plummeted by more than 80%. The COVID-19 pandemic compounded the deficit through supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and rising interest rates, leaving Pima County lagging behind peer communities in multifamily housing production.
In response, Pima County convened an Affordable Housing Task Force in 2022, and contracted the Drachman Institute to provide data on housing, climate, and water to guide policy.
Carrots, not sticks
Rather than sprawling outward, the new plan uses a “carrot, not stick” approach: incentivizing denser development within existing communities.
Under the new code, projects connecting to renewable Central Arizona Project (CAP) water and county wastewater systems qualify for significant density bonuses. Areas zoned for medium-low residential use can jump from five to 12 units per acre, while medium residential zones can increase from 13 to 20 units.
Practically, this allows single-family neighborhoods to integrate duplexes and townhomes alongside traditional ranch-style houses. The plan targets three priority growth areas for this “infill” development: Casas Adobes, Drexel Heights and Valencia West.
Chris Poirier, Pima County development services director, points to the redevelopment of the former Foothills Mall (now “Uptown”) as a prime example.
“We would love to see more of that, where you see parking lots that are hardly used, maybe aging shopping centers,” Poirier said.
Water and conservation
The density bonuses come with strings attached. To access them, developers must utilize renewable water sources rather than depleting groundwater.
This requirement directly addresses Arizona’s long-term water insecurity. The state has been in drought since the mid-1990s, and the Colorado River supply has already faced Tier 1 shortage cuts.
Courtney Crosson of the Drachman Institute explained that new projects must calculate baseline water usage and offset it through conservation measures, rainwater harvesting, or payments into infrastructure projects like aquifer storage.
“It really depends on the property, the site, the occupancy,” Crosson said, regarding specific strategies. “There’s a lot of factors that go into finding what’s the most appropriate strategy.”
The plan also upholds the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan. Developers increasing density on sensitive lands must set aside natural areas for mitigation, largely within the development site itself.
Implementation
The plan takes effect immediately. Developers submitting rezoning applications will now be processed under the updated policies.
“We need the development community to come in for the policy to be applied to them,” Poirier said. “But we’ve at least reduced a lot of barriers… to let the good stuff happen when the market’s ready to do it.”
While the framework provides unprecedented incentives, its success depends on market adoption. Implementation will determine if this policy shift can actually deliver the supply the region desperately needs, proponents say.
