The University of Arizona’s enrollment office advised off-campus student housing partners in June to expect a decline of about 20% in the fall 2025 new student class, saying most of the decline would come from out-of-state and international students.
A 20% drop from last fall's class of 9,300 new UA students would mean about 1,860 fewer students. The semester starts Monday, Aug. 25.
“At this stage, there remain several significant unknowns that make it challenging to offer a definitive forecast,” said Mary E. Venezia, UA’s chief of staff of enrollment management, in the June email. “National and international enrollment trends continue to shift, the impacts of FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) changes are still being felt, and additional external factors have contributed to a more unpredictable landscape than in previous years.”
In a June Arizona Board of Regents meeting, meanwhile, UA estimated a 6% decline in non-resident undergraduate students and a 4% decline in international students.
Both groups pay the highest tuition rates and bring in the most revenue.
Nationally, the number of international students arriving on visas to the U.S. declined by 28.5% in July 2025 compared to July 2024, according to U.S. International Trade Administration data in a Forbes article Thursday. The drop was from 106,993 international students who arrived in July 2024 to 76,519 students in July 2025, including a decline of almost 50% in students from India.
Under the Trump administration this year, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has revoked the visas of thousands of international students studying at universities across the country, making them vulnerable to arrests, detention and deportation by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE.
Additionally, NAFSA: Association of International Educators expects the Trump administration’s travel ban on nationals of 19 countries, the temporary suspension of visa interviews and limited appointment availability to result in the decline of new international student enrollment this fall, Forbes reported.
Sang Liao, front, and Yanxihao Chen, University of Arizona international students from China, pick out goodies available at the UA's International Student Services team booth inside Tucson International Airport on Aug. 14. The team greeted international students arriving at the Tucson airport from Aug. 13-20. The university has projected a drop in new international students enrolling this fall.
UA spokesperson Mitch Zak declined to confirm or comment on the projected 20% decrease in UA's fall 2025 new student enrollment, saying the university won't provide such information until after its Sept. 15 census.
"We intend for our incoming class to be somewhat smaller than it was the prior year, reflecting our more thoughtful approach to balancing access with student success," Zak said Friday.
"The university is implementing a new comprehensive enrollment strategy that prioritizes academic outcomes and financial stability," he said. "At its core, our central emphasis is on retaining the students we enroll, ensuring they progress through their programs in a timely manner, and then graduating with rewarding job opportunities and careers waiting for them."
Zak said the UA won't release enrollment numbers until after the census date, unlike previous years, saying that's because the university is now operating under President Suresh Garimella and his administration. Last year, under former UA President Robert Robbins, the university put out its fall enrollment numbers in August.
Megan Gilbertson, the Arizona Board of Regents' associate vice president of public affairs, said the regents want to ensure the state's three public universities — UA, Arizona State University and Northern Arizona University — are effectively managing enrollment changes.
Regents staff continues to monitor estimates, trends and impacts, Gilbertson said. The three universities will present enrollment reports in a Sept. 11 ABOR committee meeting.
To combat the decline of international students due to the Trump administration’s crackdown on visas and immigration, the UA announced in June that it would launch a new first-semester study-abroad option in London.
UA Vice President Jenny Lee told ABOR the UA’s global micro campuses will allow international students to obtain a U.S. degree closer to home, with no visa necessary.
The Trump administration's actions disrupted the legal standing of thousands of students across the United States, Lee noted at the June ABOR meeting. "... The uncertainty has certainly created doubts for prospective students who may think twice about choosing the United States for their education,” she said.
“In addition, as we’ve been following the news — changing every day — the federal government has recently imposed a travel ban, and this is affecting our newly admitted students across 19 countries. Combined with ongoing visa barriers, this is presenting, across the United States, a broader systemic challenge, one that can lead to a steady decline of international students over time," she said.
UA administrators have also spoken about a “demographic cliff” facing universities across the U.S., and acknowledged a need to combat that as well. The phrase refers to a steep decline in 18-year-olds in the U.S., starting around 2025, due to lower birth rates that began in 2008 after the Great Recession.
Due to this demographic change, the number of new high-school graduates is expected to fall by about 13% by 2041, the Chronicle of Higher Education reported.
Compounding this cliff are the uncertainties in international student recruitment, increased competition in higher education, and people questioning the value of higher education, ABOR was told in June by Kris Wong Davis, UA’s vice president of enrollment management and dean of undergraduate admissions.
All these factors combined have led to the “reshaping of application pools,” she said, adding that the UA is working to help Arizona’s low-income students attain higher education.
UA Chair of the Faculty Leila Hudson said she has heard from knowledgeable sources that UA will have a substantial enrollment decline this fall.
“I have not seen the data breakdown, but I imagine that a substantial portion of the decline comes from non-Arizona students staying in their home states while navigating increased economic challenges, and international students’ uncertainty about their welcome in the U.S. under the current U.S. presidential administration’s policies,” Hudson told the Arizona Daily Star.
“At the same time, the new U of A administration’s priorities include a new approach to enrollment not based on the single unsustainable goal of year-over-year growth in entering classes," Hudson said.
