Arizona poll: Top issues for key independent voters matched GOP's

Pollster Mike Noble says he knows why Arizona Democrats generally did poorly in the election: The political independents who make up more than a third of registered voters weren’t interested in what the Democrats were selling. A new survey found 31% of independents polled listed the economy as a top-three issue in deciding their vote. That aligns precisely with the priorities of registered Republicans polled. And Democrats? At the top of their list was affordable housing at 39%. The economy was in the top three for just 18% of surveyed Democrats. The disparities don’t stop there. The No. 2 issue for Democrats in deciding who to vote for was abortion. That rated among the top three for just 11% of independents and 6% percent of Republicans in the survey. Just 6% of Democrats considered immigration among their top issues, compared with 62% for Republicans and 52% for independents.

Noble said all that came home to roost when Arizonans went to the polls last month. While much of the focus was on the top of the ticket, he said the effects trickled down the ballot to local races. Republicans “were focused on what mattered to Arizonans — especially those all-important independent voters,’’ Noble said.

He also said there was a disconnect on the question of abortion which, while a key priority of Democrats, proved less significant among the rest of voters than the issues of immigration and the economy, the ones promoted by Donald Trump. “And, frankly, independents trusted Republicans better on those issues than Democrats,’’ he said. Yet even in a year where Trump won in Arizona and Republicans picked up seats in the state House and Senate, there was an outlier: Democrat Ruben Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake by 80,000 votes in the race for U.S. Senate. Some Lake supporters argued they don’t believe Gallego gained 93,000 more votes among Arizonans than Kamala Harris. Noble, however, said there are reasons for Gallego’s success, including what he called a “likeability’’ factor: Gallego was viewed positively by 53% of those questioned in the new survey versus Lake at just 37%. But what really made a difference, Noble said, is that as much as Lake tried to paint Gallego as a Biden-Harris sycophant, he was showing Arizonans a different face. “Ruben, I think, did a pretty good job of distancing himself for making different decisions than Democrats as a whole,’’ Noble said, and not just on big issues. For example, he noted that Gallego banned his congressional staff from using the term “Latinx,’’ something Noble said is “part of that social-identification politics which is smart to do.’’ Gallego made his position clear in a social media post. “When Latino politicos use the term it is largely to appease white rich progressives who think that is the term we use,’’ he wrote during the campaign. “It is a vicious circle of confirmation bias.’’ Noble said Republicans “were more spot-on compared to Democrats who were a bit more in la-la land when it came to issues they were talking about.” At the same time, Noble said, there were “twists and changes’’ within the Democratic Party itself. Those placed Gallego more in a centrist position, “more palatable to voters’’ and not coming off as out of touch, Noble said. The flip side of all this, said Noble, is that when Democrats are looking for lessons of what went wrong — and what not to do next time — they should not be focused on what Harris and many other Democrats did. “Look at what Ruben Gallego did, and, previous to that, Mark Kelly, and, previous to that, Kirsten Sinema,’’ he said, referring to two others who won U.S. Senate seats from Arizona while running as Democrats. “That is what you should be doing if you want to be successful in Arizona.’’ The same survey found 46% of those polled rated Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as favorable against 41% who had an unfavorable impression of her. Noble, however, said it probably is less of a reflection on Hobbs — she was not up for election this year — and more on the impression of voters about Democrats as a whole. That, in turn, goes to the fact 2024 was a presidential election year, meaning what happens at the top has a lot of down-ticket effect. Republicans “just had better messaging on the right issues,’’ Noble said. He said that was particularly true on the issue of immigration. “That was kind of Trump’s signature issue,’’ he said, especially in a border state like Arizona. Still, if Democrats lost because they were more focused on issues such as abortion than on immigration, the question is, how did Proposition 139 to put the right to an abortion into the state constitution manage to get the votes of more than 61% of Arizonans? Noble said there’s nothing inconsistent about that. He said voters differentiated between the political campaigns of the candidates and the ballot issues. “A perfect example of this is that we saw voters voting for Trump, for Gallego — and yes on abortion,’’ he said. In that, Arizona is not unique. Voters in Missouri and Montana both amended their state constitutions to enshrine the right of abortion until fetal viability, generally considered between 22 and 24 weeks. Yet Trump won both states — and by an even larger margin than in Arizona. Trump also won in Nevada where a similar abortion measure was approved, though voters in that state now have to ratify the change in 2026. The survey of 988 registered voters was conducted from Nov. 20 through 25 and is considered to have a potential margin of error of 3.1%.

Pollster Mike Noble says he knows why Arizona Democrats generally did poorly in the election: The political independents who make up more than a third of registered voters weren’t interested in what the Democrats were selling.

A new survey found 31% of independents polled listed the economy as a top-three issue in deciding their vote. That aligns precisely with the priorities of registered Republicans polled.

And Democrats? At the top of their list was affordable housing at 39%.

The economy was in the top three for just 18% of surveyed Democrats.

The disparities don’t stop there.

The No. 2 issue for Democrats in deciding who to vote for was abortion. That rated among the top three for just 11% of independents and 6% percent of Republicans in the survey.

Just 6% of Democrats considered immigration among their top issues, compared with 62% for Republicans and 52% for independents.

Noble said all that came home to roost when Arizonans went to the polls last month. While much of the focus was on the top of the ticket, he said the effects trickled down the ballot to local races.

Republicans “were focused on what mattered to Arizonans — especially those all-important independent voters,’’ Noble said.

He also said there was a disconnect on the question of abortion which, while a key priority of Democrats, proved less significant among the rest of voters than the issues of immigration and the economy, the ones promoted by Donald Trump.

“And, frankly, independents trusted Republicans better on those issues than Democrats,’’ he said.

Yet even in a year where Trump won in Arizona and Republicans picked up seats in the state House and Senate, there was an outlier: Democrat Ruben Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake by 80,000 votes in the race for U.S. Senate.

Some Lake supporters argued they don’t believe Gallego gained 93,000 more votes among Arizonans than Kamala Harris. Noble, however, said there are reasons for Gallego’s success, including what he called a “likeability’’ factor: Gallego was viewed positively by 53% of those questioned in the new survey versus Lake at just 37%.

Back to homepage

Subscriber Login

Keep reading with a digital access subscription.

Subscribe now

But what really made a difference, Noble said, is that as much as Lake tried to paint Gallego as a Biden-Harris sycophant, he was showing Arizonans a different face.

“Ruben, I think, did a pretty good job of distancing himself for making different decisions than Democrats as a whole,’’ Noble said, and not just on big issues.

For example, he noted that Gallego banned his congressional staff from using the term “Latinx,’’ something Noble said is “part of that social-identification politics which is smart to do.’’

Gallego made his position clear in a social media post. “When Latino politicos use the term it is largely to appease white rich progressives who think that is the term we use,’’ he wrote during the campaign. “It is a vicious circle of confirmation bias.’’

Noble said Republicans “were more spot-on compared to Democrats who were a bit more in la-la land when it came to issues they were talking about.”

At the same time, Noble said, there were “twists and changes’’ within the Democratic Party itself. Those placed Gallego more in a centrist position, “more palatable to voters’’ and not coming off as out of touch, Noble said.

The flip side of all this, said Noble, is that when Democrats are looking for lessons of what went wrong — and what not to do next time — they should not be focused on what Harris and many other Democrats did.

“Look at what Ruben Gallego did, and, previous to that, Mark Kelly, and, previous to that, Kirsten Sinema,’’ he said, referring to two others who won U.S. Senate seats from Arizona while running as Democrats. “That is what you should be doing if you want to be successful in Arizona.’’

The same survey found 46% of those polled rated Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as favorable against 41% who had an unfavorable impression of her.

Noble, however, said it probably is less of a reflection on Hobbs — she was not up for election this year — and more on the impression of voters about Democrats as a whole. That, in turn, goes to the fact 2024 was a presidential election year, meaning what happens at the top has a lot of down-ticket effect.

Republicans “just had better messaging on the right issues,’’ Noble said. He said that was particularly true on the issue of immigration.

“That was kind of Trump’s signature issue,’’ he said, especially in a border state like Arizona.

Still, if Democrats lost because they were more focused on issues such as abortion than on immigration, the question is, how did Proposition 139 to put the right to an abortion into the state constitution manage to get the votes of more than 61% of Arizonans?

Noble said there’s nothing inconsistent about that. He said voters differentiated between the political campaigns of the candidates and the ballot issues.

“A perfect example of this is that we saw voters voting for Trump, for Gallego — and yes on abortion,’’ he said.

In that, Arizona is not unique.

Voters in Missouri and Montana both amended their state constitutions to enshrine the right of abortion until fetal viability, generally considered between 22 and 24 weeks. Yet Trump won both states — and by an even larger margin than in Arizona.

Trump also won in Nevada where a similar abortion measure was approved, though voters in that state now have to ratify the change in 2026.

The survey of 988 registered voters was conducted from Nov. 20 through 25 and is considered to have a potential margin of error of 3.1%.