Three Republican Arizona Corporation Commission candidates, including an incumbent from Tucson, are comfortably ahead and quite possibly on the road to victory in their hotly contested race against three Democratic challengers.
But while one Republican candidate, Rene Lopez, said Wednesday he expects to take one of the three open seats, Democrats Jonathon Hill and Joshua Polacheck said theyโre not ready to concede Wednesday because too many voters were still uncounted.
Republican candidates are in the driverโs seat, or at least in a better position to win a seat on the commission than Democrats, said two outside experts, longtime political consultant Chuck Coughlin and pollster Mike Noble.
โI donโt see the margin there for one of those Democrats to catch up,โ Coughlin said.
As of Thursday afternoon, the three Republicans maintained at least an 82,000-vote margin over the closest Democratic Party contender, Ylenia Aguilar of Phoenix. The leading Republican, Mesa School Board member Rachel Walden, stood 148,000 votes over Aguilar, a Central Arizona Project board member and an official with the environmentalist Momโs Air Force Group.
Tucson-based incumbent Republican commissioner Lea Marquez Peterson had the 82,000-vote lead over Aguilar. Lopez, a Chandler City Council member, was ahead of Aguilar by 112,000 votes.
โConsidering Iโm in second overall, I donโt think thereโs going to be enough shift in returns that Iโll drop in support support. I do expect Iโll be in the top 3 when itโs all said and done,โ Lopez said.
Marquez Peterson said, โWhat Iโm telling folks is that Iโm cautiously optimistic. Iโm not declaring victory. Iโm hoping (my margin) holds.โ
The other two Democrats, Arizona State University scientist Jonathon Hill of Phoenix and former U.S. Foreign Service officer Joshua Polacheck of Tucson, came in about 18,000 and 70,000 votes behind Aguilar, respectively.
Polacheck noted that a large group of mail-in ballots that were turned in on Election Day were only processed on Wednesday. He said there are potentially 150,000 such uncounted ballots but acknowledged he needs 60% to 65% of them to win a seat.
Virtually every time the Secretary of State's office has updated the vote totals, the Republican candidates have gained votes in the contest.
About 944,000 votes remain uncounted, the Secretary of State's office reported Thursday afternoon.
โI donโt see anything where (Democrats) can pick up enough votes with whatโs left out there, given the trends of last night โ it seems that Election Day voting went very hard Republican,โ said Coughlin. He owns the High Ground Inc. political consulting firm and is a longtime Republican-turned-independent.
