Earl Anthony Wayne: Arizona needs to pay close attention to NAFTA negotiations

Trade negotiators from Mexico, Canada and the United States are in overdrive trying to forge an agreement on an updated NAFTA treaty by mid-May. Trade ministers from the three counties began their latest round of meetings on Monday, to bridge gaps on key issues.

Arizona has an enormous amount at stake: 47 percent of its exports go to Mexico and Canada.

That commerce supports 236,000 Arizona jobs and generates more than $10 billion in exports.

The Grand Canyon State will suffer if the negotiations stall or fail. It has much to gain from a modernized trade agreement with America’s two largest export markets, which is why Gov. Doug Ducey, other officials and the state’s businesses are strong supporters.

Underscoring Arizona’s pivotal role, governors, premiers and business leaders met in Scottsdale May 4 through 6 for a North American Summit to enhance cooperation.

Now is the time to press for getting a NAFTA agreement settled. Because of the legislative schedule to get an agreement through the U.S. Congress this year — and due to Mexico’s July 1 presidential and congressional elections — negotiators are sprinting.

Unless the three governments can reach compromises now, however, a NAFTA agreement will be delayed until after a new Mexican government takes office in December. A delay would result in uncertainty for farmers, ranchers, workers and businesses from Arizona and across the United States.

Arizona also has a vital interest in deepening cooperation with Mexico on homeland security issues.

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In recent years, the U.S. and Mexico have greatly improved cooperation on managing the border, fighting drug trafficking and cooperating against potential threats from terrorists and other bad actors before they reach the United States. The U.S. and Arizona gain tremendously from this “perimeter defense” extending far beyond America’s borders. The Nogales border crossing is also one of the most efficient, with Unified Cargo Processing allowing U.S. and Mexican officials to work together to inspect the many billions of dollars of goods that cross the border in both directions.

There is certainly much to do to make that security cooperation more effective. However, the recent criticism of Mexico over migration by President Trump united all of Mexico’s presidential candidates in criticizing the U.S. It sparked Mexico’s Senate to call for suspending U.S.-Mexico homeland security cooperation and led Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto to order a review of all such cooperation with the United States.

This clash comes in the heat of their presidential elections. The longer-term costs for Arizona and America will be high if a more anti-U.S. government emerges from Mexico’s elections.

China is America’s biggest economic rival. Canada and Mexico provide the skills, investment and market specialization to compete more effectively. According to one study, enhancing economic integration across the U.S.-Mexico border can add 700,000 to 1.4 million jobs in U.S. border states, including up to 128,000 in Arizona.

Trade officials are now focused on the most divisive issues, such as rules of origin for autos (the level of required U.S. and North American content in cars), a sunset clause (an option for any country to pull out every few years), dispute settlement mechanisms (for protecting investors and settling disagreements among governments), and agricultural issues (including Mexican seasonal exports, which pass through Arizona).

Much work remains. Yet, agreement on major items is possible if all three parties are flexible and creative, and then technical teams can craft the detailed treaty chapters.

Without agreement, businesses, farmers and workers will face costly uncertainty. Arizonans need to stay actively engaged in this important process.