Scouting report: No. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 USC Trojans

The Star's Bruce Pascoe breaks down the starting lineups, storylines and stats as the No. 2-ranked Arizona Wildcats travel to face No. 16 USC on Tuesday night:

What: No. 2 Arizona (25-3, 15-2) at No. 16 USC (25-4, 14-4)

Where: Galen Center, Los Angeles

When: 9 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Radio: 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

Social media: @TheWildcaster on Twitter / TheWildcaster on Facebook

PROBABLE STARTERS

ARIZONA

G Kerr Kriisa (6-3 sophomore)

G Dalen Terry (6-6 sophomore)

F Bennedict Mathurin (6-6 sophomore)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-11 sophomore)

C Christian Koloko (7-0 junior)

USC

G Boogie Ellis (6-3 junior)

G Drew Peterson (6-9 senior)

F Max Agbonkpolo (6-9 junior)

F Chevez Goodwin (6-9 senior)

C Isaiah Mobley (6-10 junior)

HOW THEY MATCH UP

The last time: Azuolas Tubelis had 18 points and 11 rebounds while Arizona held USC to just 34.3% shooting in the Wildcats’ 72-63 win on Feb. 5 at McKale Center. USC trailed UA just 29-28 at halftime and much of the game was played within one possession. Kerr Kriisa, who had 13 points on 4 for 7 3-point shooting, hit two free throws to give UA a 69-63 lead with 36 seconds left and the Wildcats hung on from there.

The last time at the Galen Center: Jordan Brown had 19 points and 13 rebounds in a matchup against eventual NBA lottery pick Evan Mobley to lead the Wildcats to an 81-72 win on Feb. 20, 2021. Mobley had 23 points and five rebounds. Both teams shot 42% from the field but UA outrebounded USC 43-36, getting 15 offensive rebounds that led to 17 second-chance points.

What’s new with the Trojans: USC broke a school-record for regular-season wins (25) on Saturday at Oregon with a 70-69 victory that has been all too typical of the Trojans lately. The Trojans have won six straight since losing at McKale Center on Feb. 5, but four of those six games were decided by three points or less. It doesn’t seem to matter how good the Trojans’ opponents are, either: They needed double-overtime to win at last-place Oregon State on Feb. 24 and also beat Pacific (No. 283 in Kenpom) by just six points in a nonconference game added in on Feb. 8 after trailing by double digits in the second half.

But the No. 16-ranked Trojans are in good health, with forward Isaiah Mobley appearing to be back to normal after missing two games because of a broken nose suffered at Arizona, while point guard Boogie Ellis came back at Oregon after he missed their OSU game with an ankle injury. Meanwhile, forward Drew Peterson, who had just five points at McKale Center, is on a roll. He averaged 20.2 points over his past five games. On Saturday at Oregon, the long and lanky guard scored 20 points, including a game-winning 3-pointer, which earned him Pac-12 Player of the Week honors.

Although USC’s defense is rated just the sixth most efficient in Pac-12 play, the Trojans have the third-best field-goal percentage defense in conference play (39.8%) behind only Arizona (39.1%) and ASU (39.7).

He said it: “They’re just being who they are and they’re finding ways to win games. They won their last three games by a total of six points so a lot of times when you’re able to win close games it breeds confidence. They continue to believe they can win games regardless of what the situation is.

Mobley “got rid of the (protective) mask, so I think he’s really back playing up to his level. That was probably annoying him. I think he struggled in couple of games but in his last few games he’s found his groove.

“(Ellis) only missed the one game so he didn’t seem to be favoring anything or missing a beat. (Peterson) is a facilitator. He’s right in the mix of everything for their team. He’s a stat-sheet stuffer. Makes 3s, assists. He’s a very versatile player and poses a lot of problems because of his size. He’s just seemed to always be very confident.

“Everybody knows their top four scorers – Mobley, Peterson, Ellis and (Chevez) Goodwin — but their bench scored 19 points in that (Feb. 5 game at McKale Center) and their bench is playing better. They’re more aggressive and finding a bigger role.

“We’ve got to come in there and play extremely hard knowing we’re playing in hostile environment, with the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the conference going head to head. — UA assistant coach Steve Robinson, who scouted the Trojans

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KEY PLAYERS

USC — Isaiah Mobley

The Trojans’ versatile forward appears to be back in rhythm after breaking his nose in a 37-minute effort against Arizona. Mobley missed two games and went 0 for 6 from 3-point range in his first three games back but was 7 for 13 from two-point range at OSU and 2 for 3 from 3-point range at Oregon.

ARIZONA — Bennedict Mathurin

Not only is Mathurin coming off a scoreless second half at Colorado, where he was 1 for 5 from two-point range, but he’ll be facing a long and athletic team that bothered him on Feb. 5 at McKale. Mathurin had just eight points on 4-for-10 shooting against USC at McKale on Feb. 5, the only time in Pac-12 play this season that he hasn’t scored in double figures.

SIDELINES

Home-bed advantage

While UA was able to squeeze in one of its three makeup games without much trouble, making an I-10 day trip to win at ASU on Feb. 7, the Wildcats suffered a 16-point loss at UCLA on Jan. 25 in what was the third game of a road trip through California.

So this time, with yet another road makeup game on Tuesday at USC to follow their swing through Utah and Colorado, the Wildcats at least headed home for two nights in between. They returned home about midnight after losing at Colorado on Saturday, giving them until Monday afternoon at home before leaving for Los Angeles.

“That'll definitely help,” UA guard Justin Kier said after the Colorado game. “We get days of rest (at home). But even if we had to go straight to ’SC, we would have to prepare and do what we do.”

UA coach Tommy Lloyd noted that the Wildcats did have a disadvantage in playing all their makeup games on the road, but wasn't bothered when reminded that the USC game would have to be crammed between UA's loss at Colorado on Saturday and two final home games later this week against Stanford and Cal.

“It’s March. I mean, what do you want me to say?” Lloyd said. “Hard games. Bring it on. Bring it on. I want to play meaningful games this time of year.”

Battle scarred

Not only is USC is now 9-1 in games decided by five points or less, but the Trojans keep picking up some valuable experiences along the way.

The Trojans scared the Wildcats on Feb. 5 despite a full house (14,600 fans) at McKale, and also extended their win streak on Saturday by pulling out a one-point win over an Oregon team desperate for a résumé-building win, and in front of a rowdy crowd of 10,021 fans at Matthew Knight Arena.

“Very proud of (our) players. We played an outstanding game,” USC coach Andy Enfield said afterward, according to the Associated Press. “It was a hostile environment, a lot of energy in the building. Their students were swearing at our players and throwing things in the tunnel afterwards, but we came through with a big road win.”

The Trojans also beat USC in a manner that might seem familiar to the Wildcats: Oregon’s Quincy Guerrier, who had 21 points with 6-for-11 3-point shooting against Arizona on Feb. 19, put the Ducks ahead 69-67 on a 3-pointer with 23 seconds remaining.

Then, after Drew Peterson hit what would be a game-winning 3-pointer, Oregon’s Will Richardson who missed a shot at the buzzer. It was Richardson who was called for traveling on Oregon's final possession at Arizona, unable to get a shot off or make a pass thanks to the defense of Christian Koloko.

“We worked our butts off,” Peterson said after the Trojans won at Oregon. “Everyone contributed, and we won in a crazy environment.”

Wildcats still No. 2

Despite losing at Colorado on Saturday, Arizona remained No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll Monday and is still widely projected to receive a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed.

Several other teams on the one- and two-seed lines also suffered losses last week, including Gonzaga, Auburn and Kansas, helping the Wildcats retain their status.

However, Arizona was just ahead of No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Duke in Top 25 voting, both of whom received first-place votes while UA did not receive any.

CBS' Bracketology still has UA as the No. 1 seed in the South Region, while the majority of brackets in the Bracket Matrix have the Wildcats as a No. 1 seed — including the ones that were updated after Arizona lost at Colorado on Saturday.

Arizona dropped to No. 3 in Kenpom and Sagarin ratings but is No. 2 in the NCAA NET ratings.

NUMBERS GAME

1 — Arizona’s Pac-12 rank in two-point percentage (56.7) in conference games.

1 — USC’s Pac-12 rank in two-point percentage defense (40.5) in conference games.

1 — USC’s Pac-12 rank in offensive rebounding percentage during conference games, collecting 35.6% of its missed shots.

2 — Arizona’s Pac-12 rank in offensive rebounding percentage during conference games, collecting 34.9% of its missed shots.