When compiling a list of “losers” among college basketball teams after the NBA’s early entry deadline passed last weekend, CBS Sports included one from the Pac-12.
You probably know which one that is.
“Arizona is losing its entire starting lineup for the second time in three years,” CBS’ Kyle Boone noted. “This isn’t a new trend for Sean Miller.”
True enough. But at least the Wildcats’ early losses are rarely a surprise, especially this season, with Nico Mannion, Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji all long expected to leave. That knowledge allowed the Wildcats to recruit — and reset — accordingly.
Their top Pac-12 counterparts don’t have that luxury, and the league race is especially difficult to predict now as a result.
Stanford (guard Tyrell Terry), UCLA (forward Chris Smith), and ASU (guard Remy Martin and forward Romello White) will all be affected by key stay-or-go decisions ahead. And with the June 25 NBA Draft and its preceding withdrawal deadline (10 days beforehand) both subject to coronavirus delays, the uncertainty could go on a while.
A total of 19 players from 10 different Pac-12 teams declared early for the NBA Draft. Players declaring from Arizona, Washington (Jaden McDaniels and Isaiah Stewart), and USC (Onyeka Okongwu) are all firmly in the draft, while seven other teams have players on the fence.
Here’s a look at those teams and how their players’ decisions could shake up the Pac-12 race in 2020-21:
Arizona State (guard Remy Martin, forward Romello White, guard Alonzo Verge)
Resumes: Martin, White and Verge were three of the Sun Devils’ four top scorers last season, and Martin was the Sun Devils’ undisputed heart and soul. No more was that apparent than when he led the Sun Devils back from a 22-point deficit to beat Arizona in Tempe on Jan. 25. A microwavable scorer, Verge accelerated late last season to become the Sun Devils’ second-leading scorer (14.6 points per game), while White — a three-year starter — has been a mainstay inside.
NBA stock: None of the three Sun Devils are projected draft picks, in part because they are undersized for their positions in the NBA.
Forecast: Martin left a strong indication he would stay in the draft upon declaring on March 30, saying he would “forever cherish the time I have spent at ASU,” but it would not be a surprise if he returned. Verge did not announce his intentions but his name surfaced on the NBA’s official early entry list, suggesting he is just testing the waters and/or seeking NBA feedback. While Wright wouldn’t be drafted if he leaves, he also probably wouldn’t be in 2021, so he’s also difficult to predict.
Impact on ASU: If all three players return, the Sun Devils could be the favorite to win the Pac-12 and make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Martin would also be the preseason favorite to win the Pac-12’s Player of the Year award. But losing White could be just as critical because of his presence inside and the Sun Devils’ lack of interior depth.
Colorado (forward Tyler Bey, guard McKinley Wright)
Resumes: Bey and Wright were the top two scorers on a veteran Colorado team that fell short of expectations and ended the season on a five-game losing streak that included a loss to Washington State in the first (and only) round of the Pac-12 Tournament.
Long, athletic and versatile, Bey averaged 14.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while shooting 53% from the field. Wright, a tough-minded, 6-foot point guard, averaged 14.4 points and 5.0 assists while serving as the Buffaloes’ undisputed leader.
NBA stock: With a 7-foot wingspan and athleticism of a prototypical NBA wing, Bey is considered a solid second-round pick who could climb into the first round. But Wright’s size and lack of quickness for his position — by NBA standards — make him a second-round pick at best.
Forecast: Bey is expected to stay in the draft while Wright is expected to return.
Impact on Colorado: With Bey returning, the Buffaloes would have again been a Pac-12 favorite. But even though that isn’t expected to happen, they should still be among the top four with a veteran team led by Wright.
UCLA guard Chris Smith, who led the Bruins’ surge to second-place finish, could go in the second round.
UCLA (forward Chris Smith, forward Jalen Hill)
Resumes: Smith led the Bruins’ unexpected surge to a second-place finish in the Pac-12, averaging 13.1 points per game while earning the league’s Most Improved Player award and a first-team all-conference selection. Hill averaged 9.0 points and 6.1 rebounds per game while starting 25 of 30 games as a redshirt sophomore.
NBA stock: With a long and athletic frame, Smith hit the NBA radar this season after two uninspiring seasons with the Bruins. He could go in the second round. Hill, however, is not a projected draft pick.
Forecast: Smith might be toughest player to predict among all the Pac-12’s early entrants. While he could help himself with a continued ascent next season, he showed enough upside last season to warrant a second-round pick. Hill is expected to return. According to the Los Angeles Times, he is believed to be mostly seeking NBA feedback.
Impact on UCLA: If Smith returns, the Bruins could be Pac-12 favorites. They also have most everyone else back from a team that went 12-6 last season but lost five-star point guard Daishen Nix to the NBA’s developmental program earlier this week.
Stanford (guard Tyrell Terry)Resume: A club-ball teammate of Nnaji’s in Minnesota, Terry blew up in similar fashion as Nnaji did last season. He averaged 14.6 points and shot 40.8% from 3-point range while splitting ballhandling duties with Daejon Davis.
NBA stock: Terry is a borderline first-round pick.
Forecast: Like Smith, Terry’s decision is tough to forecast. He is considered a slight lean to return to Stanford.
Impact on Stanford: With Terry, the Cardinal should be a lock for the Pac-12’s top four and make a run at the conference title. But even without him, Stanford will be a force: It returns all other starters while bringing in five-star freshman Ziaire Williams.
Utah’s Timmy Allen, right, celebrates with Both Gach (11) after he scored against Colorado at the end of the second half during an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, March 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Utah (forward Timmy Allen, guard Both Gach)
Resumes: A Mesa product, Allen led the young Utes with 17.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game last season. Gach was a big combo guard who averaged 10.7 points per game.
NBA stock: Neither Allen nor Gach are expected draft picks.
Forecast: Both are expected to return after gaining NBA feedback.
Impact on Utah: After breaking their five-year streak of finishing in the Pac-12’s top four last season, the Utes could get back there again next season with Allen and Gach leading a more experienced team.
Washington State (guard CJ Elleby)Resume: Under new analytics-minded coach Kyle Smith, Elleby continued rising as a sophomore last season, becoming the league’s fourth-leading scorer (18.4 points per game) and a first-team all-league player.
NBA stock: If he left now, Elleby would not likely be drafted. He could, however, sneak into the second round.
Forecast: Elleby told reporters he is “seeing if I can slip into the draft” but is expected to return after receiving NBA feedback for a second straight year.
Impact on WSU: The Cougs could challenge for the Pac-12’s upper division with Elleby on the roster next season.
Oregon State (guard Ethan Thompson)
Resume: Thompson averaged 14.8 points and 4.5 assists per game while taking the primary backcourt role last season without his brother, Stephen, around.
NBA stock: Thompson is not a projected NBA pick.
Forecast: Thompson is likely to return to OSU.
Impact on OSU: The Beavers are losing the do-everything Tres Tinkle and shot-blocking whiz Kylor Kelley, so life could be tough no matter what.
