Do Arizona Wildcats have (de)commitment issues?

The 2017 recruiting cycle has been a practice in extremes for the Arizona Wildcats.

The beginning was filled with momentum and buzz. UA coach Rich Rodriguez, before, during and after a 3-9 season, said Arizona’s incoming recruiting class had the potential to be the best in school history.

A month into the season, the Wildcats already had 27 players committed, including three four-star recruits, with their sights set on more.

At the opposite end, Arizona lost assistant coach Donte Williams to Nebraska, lost out on some high-priority targets, two of the four-star players decommitted and nine players overall have moved on from Arizona.

Last year, Arizona lost eight players to decommitments, though an argument can be made that many of them came as a result of Rodriguez’s decision to ax most of his defensive coaching staff.

Of those 17 players, three left for Oregon and two for UCLA. Not all of those players were pure decommitments, though — Arizona made the decision to drop defensive linemen Elijah Watson and Matthew Leo, for example.

With Wednesday’s Signing Day fast approaching, Arizona still has a few players who conceivably could renege on their Arizona commitment.

If the last few years of recruiting at Arizona have proven anything, it’s that a commitment isn’t a commitment until the player signs his national letter of intent and the Wildcats receive it via their trusty fax machine.

All of that begs the question:

Does UA have (de)commitment issues?

To come up with a diagnosis, here’s a breakdown of why it might seem that way.

Reason 1: Recruiting early and often

Each school is allowed 25 scholarships per recruiting class.

Arizona had 27 players committed at one point in September.

The truth — the Wildcats never expected to hang on to all 27.

“The early offer thing I think was important for them because it got them going, got them a lot of buzz,” said Pac-12 Network analyst Yogi Roth.

When four-star Greg Johnson committed in March, it was a surprising commitment that set off a wave of other players taking notice, with some joining the class, others making visits to Arizona a priority. At points early in the process, the Wildcats were legitimate contenders for, among others, five-star receiver Joseph Lewis, four-star cornerback Elijah Blades, four-star athlete Bruce Judson and four-star defensive end Hunter Echols.

At one point, four-star cornerback Thomas Graham was believed to be a silent commit to Arizona.

None of them are bound for Arizona now: Graham and Judson are off to Oregon, Echols to USC and Blades and Lewis are still undecided.

The point — Arizona decided to go all-in early. In some regards it’s paid dividends, as much of the class is still intact at positions of need.

“Arizona is very comfortable with that, making that summer run,” said ESPN’s Erik McKinney, “and I think if the season had gone differently …maybe that offers some stability and they bring in a few more, and maybe there are less decommitments and uncertainty.”

Added Scout.com’s Greg Biggins: “When you have three-fourths of your class already locked in, even when your season is going bad, these guys have already drank the Kool-Aid.”

reason 2: Reliance on ‘loyalty’

There are three case studies for Arizona on this topic.

One: Austin Faoliu. The defensive lineman had zero Power Five conference offers when the Wildcats came in September. Faoliu committed almost immediately. Then came offers from Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan State and Oregon. Faoliu has since flipped to Oregon.

Two: Braxton Burmeister. This is a saga well-chronicled here. The gist: The four-star recruit was twice committed to Arizona, recommiting after his first change of heart only to flip to Oregon mere days before he was to enroll at Arizona. Arizona was Burmeister’s first offer, way back when he was just a sophomore.

Three: Tony Wallace, a three-star corner who missed his sophomore and junior high school seasons for academic reasons. When Arizona offered, Colorado was the only other Power Five offer, and he promptly committed. Days later, USC offered, and eventually Oregon and Nebraska joined the fray. In recent days, Wallace indicated to Scout.com he was leaning toward Nebraska, powered by ex-Arizona coach Donte Williams.

Sunday, Wallace told the Star he was sticking with Arizona.

“I’m committed to Arizona,” Wallace said. “They were the first school to show me love. They were my first big-time offer, and they were the first to recognize me. I went to a summer camp and they were the first to notice me.”

This is the sort of battle Arizona will always deal with — the UA needs to get in early on recruits to get a chance and the reality is, if the talent evaluation is working, the top programs will eventually take notice. The tough part, now, is hanging onto them.

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Roth coached four years under Pete Carroll at USC. This recruiting reality was never lost on the Trojans.

“That’s how it’s always gonna go,” Roth said. “‘Always’ is a dramatic term, but if a kid wants the sickest facilities in the country, and Oregon comes in late, he’s going to go there. If a kid wants to play at USC because that was his dream school, that usually happens. …

“When I coached there, you knew you could get a couple guys late. We just could. That was their dream school, and they just wanted the opportunity to go there.”

reason 3: Lost momentum

There are a few subsets to this reason.

No. 1: Season struggles are hard to overcome. Arizona went 3-9, and seven of those losses were by double digits.

“They had so much of this class wrapped up so long ago,” McKinney said, “and then it’s just tough to keep it together when you go through that kind of season.”

The luster Arizona had from its Pac-12 South title in 2014, with four bowl appearances in Rodriguez’s first four years, was lost. At least, in perception.

“USC is as hot of a brand as there is in America and Arizona is … not,” Roth said. “In this conference, Arizona and ASU might be the least-hot brands in the conference.”

No. 2: No more buzz. Arizona’s buzzword as it loaded up on this 2017 class was, well, buzz. Johnson’s March commitment, running back Nathan Tilford’s commitment in April and Burmeister’s recommitment to Arizona in May is, in part, what pushed Rodriguez to confidently, and often, declare this class to be the UA’s best ever.

That’s all part of what drove Arizona to the verrrrry early heights of the conference’s top-rated class .

Then Williams left after the season, Johnson decommitted, the Wildcats were out of the sweepstakes for most of their original highly ranked recruits, and the Burmeister saga was icing on the cake.

Tilford is the only remaining four-star recruit, according to Scout.com, without any others likely to join him. Even Tilford, before he enrolled early, was the subject of a late USC push, as the Trojans did last year with UA quarterback Khalil Tate.

Arizona commit Jalen Harris is a four-star recruit on ESPN.com, but he won’t announce until Wednesday if he’s picking the Wildcats or Notre Dame.

“Recruits are so ingrained in the process, they see what’s going on,” McKinney said. “They see when schools are losing guys, when schools are missing on guys. You don’t have that extra incentive for other recruits to go in.”

reason 4: That’s just

the way it is

Things will never be the same.

That’s just the way it is.

Aww yeah.

OK, enough Tupac.

The reality is, it’s not as if Arizona is the only school dealing with decommitments. Teenagers will be teenagers, and teenagers are indecisive.

USC recently flipped five-star Marlon Tuipulotu from Washington; Judson was once an Ohio State commit and switched to South Florida before ultimately settling on Oregon; Jamire Calvin was committed to Oregon State for less than two weeks before he flipped to Nebraska; and on Monday, former four-star Washington commit Connor Wedington flipped to Stanford.

Roth recalls a time at USC when five-star quarterback Jimmy Clausen announced he’d picked Notre Dame over the Trojans.

“Jimmy was in our office in a USC T-shirt the day before,” Roth said. “I’ll never forget it. I was just thinking: ‘What just happened?’ ”

On the opposite end, Arizona has had some success flipping recruits, too.

Last year, Chacho Ulloa flipped from Stanford, Kahi Neves from Utah, Isaiah Hayes from Boise State, and, the night before signing day, Shawn Poindexter from Marshall.

This year, safety Rhedi Short flipped from UCLA, where defensive end My-King Johnson was also once a soft commit, tight end Bryce Wolma flipped from Northwestern just one day after committing, and Jose Ramirez went from South Alabama commit one week to Arizona early enrollee the next.

“It’s kind of a weird storm of things and I just think it’s something Arizona has to deal with until they can become one of the elite programs that can jump into a recruitment at any point and start stealing some recruits,” said Scout.com’s Blair Angulo. “It’s going to take some winning on the field.”