Let’s make this clear. According to Kenny White’s Power Rankings – the best in the business – the Bills would be a favorite against any AFC team on a neutral site. That they are facing the AFC’s weakest entry in the Jaguars, it’s no surprise the Bills are the biggest favorite of Week 9, albeit on the road.
The truth of the matter, though, is quarterback Josh Allen’s accuracy is down substantially this season from last, per TheRinger.com. His on-target throw percentage of 74.1% trails last year’s 81.0%, while his 66.2% completion percentage this season is down from 74.1% in 2020. Is that reason to panic? Hardly.
Of course, it helps that the Bills no longer reside in the AFC East torture chamber with Tom Brady doing his thing in Tampa Bay, but Allen has resurrected a franchise that has waited decades to get out of the Patriots’ shadow.
To summarize how Urban Meyer’s first season with Jacksonville is going, the Jaguars were flagged for having 12 men on the field on back-to-back plays in last Sunday's humbling loss at Seattle, a puzzling pair of penalties given the extra time they had to prepare with the bye week. With Jacksonville now a paltry 1-14 against the spread in games before facing Indianapolis, and 1-8 against the spread as nondivision home underdogs of six points or more points, there’s no way we can recommend the Jaguars here.
The problem is the Bills are just 17-31 straight up and 13-35 against the spread in games following a Dolphins win. We know this looks like candy-from-a-baby stuff, but laying the big wood on the NFL road is not in our wheelhouse. Pass.
Prediction: Buffalo over Jaguars by 11.
Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him at PlaybookSports.com or @MarcLawrence.
