Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning led the NFL with 28 interceptions in his rookie season.
Josh Allen threw 19 interceptions in his first 16 starts. He has thrown only 15 in 34 starts since early in the 2019 season.
PlayAction is new to The Buffalo News' extensive NFL coverage. Each week, Mark Gaughan, who has covered the league throughout his 38 years at The News, distills X's and O's and strategy relating to how the Bills match up with their next opponent. All in about two minutes.
Allen had the 10th-best interception rate in the NFL last year, and he’s third-best this season with only three pickoffs.
It’s a common story. Young quarterbacks with elite talent need to learn what throws they can get away with – and what they can’t get away with – against tighter passing windows and more talented defensive backs in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills will try to take advantage of this trend the next couple weeks against Jacksonville rookie Trevor Lawrence on Sunday and either Mike White or Zach Wilson of the New York Jets on Nov. 14.
Here is how News sports writers see Sunday's game between the Bills and Jaguars at TIAA Stadium.
The Bills have 11 interceptions so far – the top rate in the NFL. They’re on pace for 26 pickoffs, which would be second-most by any team in the last eight years.
The Bills have benefitted from getting four pickoffs vs. Houston rookie Davis Mills and two off inexperienced Taylor Heinicke of Washington. Still, they’ve had an interception in each of the last six games.
Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the April draft, has thrown nine interceptions, with at least one in six of his seven games.
The 6-foot-6, 215-pound Lawrence is arguably the highest-rated quarterback to enter the draft since Andrew Luck in 2012. Lawrence has elite arm strength. If there was the slightest criticism of him coming out of Clemson, it’s he had a tendency to air-mail some throws on occasion. His accuracy wasn’t at Luck’s level. But that was nit-picking.
Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer discussed the biggest adjustment Lawrence is making this season during a conference call with Buffalo media this week.
Beane spoke Wednesday with The Buffalo News about the inactivity in the trade market, the team’s start to the season and a variety of other topics.
“Trevor Lawrence has been in the shotgun since he could probably say hello,” Meyer said. “When you’re in the shotgun, you’re always facing the defense and you’re always facing the rush. The minute you go under center, it’s not just the mechanics of taking the snap from under center. But when you turn around to hand the ball off or turn around to run play action, you’re actually turning your back to the defense. And when you flip back, sometimes the pressure’s on you and/or the defense changes.
“What I’ve found is that’s the thing that takes a lot of time,” Meyer said. “We’re trying to complement him with some shotgun stuff, but also learning the under center. I think long term, he needs to become a pro quarterback for longevity of career. That’s why I hired two coaches who have experience with young quarterbacks.”
Jaguars offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell worked with Luck in Indianapolis. Passing game coordinator Brian Schottenheimer worked with Russell Wilson in Seattle.
“We really struggled Sunday,” Meyer said of the Jaguars’ 31-7 loss to Seattle. “But the last four or five weeks in a row, he’s had a great QBR, he’s had a 70%completion rate. He’s been doing much better.”
The last two teams Lawrence has faced, Seattle and Miami, blitzed him a lot, and with success. Overall, he’s being blitzed at about the league average rate. Jacksonville’s pass blocking has been pretty good this year.
It will be interesting to see how much Leslie Frazier decides to heat up Lawrence.
The Bills quarterback and the Jaguars defensive end were drafted in back-to-back years at the same spot, the former in 2018 and the latter in 2019. They have yet to be formally introduced.
The 30,000-foot view. Besides owning the Jaguars, Shahid Khan also owns English football club Fulham and All-Elite Wrestling, which can be seen weekly on the TNT network. Fulham was in the Premier League last year, but dropped down to the Championship Division after a bottom-three finish.
Khan’s 39-year-old son, Tony, is a big proponent of analytics and is head of the Jaguars’ seven-person analytics department. However, Tony Khan also has big responsibilities with Fulham and the wrestling business. It’s the second biggest analytics staff in the NFL behind Cleveland (which has a staff of nine). The Bills have four in their analytics department.
Jags’ zone defense. Jacksonville ranks tied for 28th in passing yards allowed at 278 a game. Meyer didn’t sound like he was eager to copy the approach last week of Miami, which often put six men on the line of scrimmage, played a ton of man coverage and blitzed Allen a season-high 25 times (according to News charts).
“It was really unique the way the Dolphins defended them,” Meyer said. “It was basically six up the entire day and blitzed them from every angle and played zero coverage behind it, which is very risky. They did the same thing to us. Very risky. The one thing about six up is it really takes away the spread element, the different options the quarterback has to hand it, to throw it, the RPOs, the stuff I’ve done for a long time. They just took that away. I’m just not sure how many teams can hang in there covering those kind of wideouts in zero coverage. Of course, they got burned a few times as well.”
All those men on the line of scrimmage helped Miami defend the receiver screens and the “now” passes Allen threw horizontally on the line of scrimmage to wideouts. The Bills ran eight of those and netted only 32 yards, according to News charts. Miami’s defenders did a good job rallying to the ball.
“We started off in man,” Meyer said of Week 1. “We just don’t feel we have the manpower, not just at corner, but to load up and play man coverage all the time. So we got a little bit better at zone. We have to not let him pick you apart. He’ll pick you apart in zone, and then you have to worry about the talent at receiver versus man to man.”
Rookie offensive lineman Spencer Brown also did not practice again, meaning he could miss a second consecutive game with a back injury.
Canisius connection. Jaguars tight end Chris Manhertz is a former basketball player for Canisius College (from 2010 to 2014). He has three catches on the season and is playing 36% of the snaps. Sunday will be his 78th NFL game.
“I know Buffalo very well,” Meyer said. “I grew up in Ashtabula, Ohio. You’re a tough hombre if you’re from Buffalo in those winters. ... Manhertz is a tough guy. He represents the Buffalo area very well.”
Stats for the road. Jacksonville has just two takeaways on the season, and no fumble recoveries. It’s hard to believe. The NFL record for the worst takeaway total on a season is seven by the 49ers in 2018. Next worst was nine by Houston last year. The Bills are plus-13 in takeaways and the Jags are minus-11. It’s the biggest differential in any game so far this season. ... Jaguars receiver Laviska Shenault was a second-round pick in 2020 who is 227 pounds and good with the ball in his hands. He has carried only four times for 28 yards this year. I’d get him the ball more. ... Another young guy not doing enough is edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, the 20th pick in the 2020 draft. He has two sacks in 23 games. He was viewed as a raw boom-bust pick. But he’s still only 22. He played only 20 snaps each of the past two games. Why not force-feed him playing time?
