It might come as a surprise to Buffalo Bills fans that the New England Patriots created more explosive pass plays this season than the Bills.
The Patriots had 60 pass plays of 20 or more yards, 10th best in the NFL. The Bills had 51 plays of 20-plus yards, 16th most.
Allen arguably carried an even heavier load of the Bills’ offense in 2021 and produced one of the best quarterbacking seasons in Bills history.
Can the Patriots tap into that ability to get chunk pass plays in Saturday’s wild-card playoff game? Can the Bills’ offense score enough in the first half to force New England to open up its offense?
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones managed only 145 yards passing in the game three weeks ago, won by the Bills 33-21. He had only two 20-plus completions, 21 and 20 yards, both in the fourth quarter.
For the season, the Pats ranked a respectable 14th in passing yards.
In every win and loss, there was good and bad and a lesson to be learned.
The Pats’ ability to get chunk plays is attributable to a bunch of factors. Defenses tend to gang up on the Pats’ power ground game, which opens up the pass. Jones has superb accuracy, hitting receivers in stride on in-breaking routes and giving them more yards-after-catch opportunity. The Pats’ offensive scheme sets up those in-breakers and crossing routes with good play-action fakes. Jones was eighth in the NFL in yards per attempt (9.0) on play action, according to Pro Football Focus.
Pats receiver Kendrick Bourne, who had 55 catches for 800 yards, was fifth best among the top 100 wideouts in yards-after-catch per reception (7.2), according to PFF.
Jones is better than most Bills fans want to admit. Is his ceiling lower than elite? That’s the conventional wisdom. Will he become a good version of Chad Pennington (which is darn good)? Or can he be better than that?
Here's coach Bill Belichick on Jones two weeks ago after the blowout win over the Jaguars: “Mac is super consistent. Every day is really the same day for Mac. He's always well prepared. He's in early. He's ready to go. He knows what we're going to be doing, and he's already got a head start on it. He maximizes the information that the coaches give him, maximizes the walk-throughs, the practice reps, and learns from whatever happens in those situations. He's smart. He's a good learner, but he's got good instincts and good mechanics. He's just worked hard to get better every day. A lot of consistency and great work ethic and really pays attention to details and has just improved in every area throughout the course of the year. ... He's just a really great person to coach because he's so responsive to trying to do everything the way that you want to do it.”
Heavy formations. Keep an eye on how often the Patriots power up, using No. 47, fullback Jakob Johnson, or No. 71, sixth lineman Michael Onwenu.
The journey to the postseason – which begins Saturday when the New England Patriots visit Highmark Stadium for an AFC wild-card playoff game – has been full of adversity. Some of that is the same type as every NFL team goes through, and some of it has been self-inflicted and unique to the Bills.
In the Pats’ win in Orchard Park, Pats running backs ran 26 times for 164 yards (a 6.3 average) with Onwenu on the field.
In the Bills’ win at Foxborough, the Pats ran 14 times with Onwenu for 61 yards (a 4.3 average), not counting goal-line plays. Johnson was on the field for most of those runs, too.
The Bills used third linebacker A.J. Klein against the Pats’ heavy personnel in the second game. They also used bigger Siran Neal at cornerback in place of Dane Jackson on 13 “heavy package” plays.
“They're very, very diverse and they got some good running backs,” Jordan Poyer said. “They got good contact balance, run the ball extremely hard. They got a very solid offensive line that blocks well for them. They're able to turn the dial. When one run’s not working, they mix it up and go to the next one.”
The 30,000-foot view. Bill Belichick has coached in more playoff games than anyone in history (43) and has won more (31), too. With 321 career wins, he’s just three behind No. 2 George Halas (324) on the all-time list. He’s 26 behind No. 1 Don Shula (347). Belichick is 69. He needs three more seasons to pass Shula. Sean McDermott will be coaching his sixth playoff game as Bills head coach. That’s already second most in team history, ahead of Lou Saban (4). Marv Levy was 11-8 in the playoffs. With 51 wins, McDermott is 19 behind Saban (70) for second on the Bills’ coaching list.
Buffalo Bills healthy on final injury report ahead of facing New England Patriots
All-Pro picks. This was my ballot for the NFL All-Pro team, picked by the Pro Football Writers of America.
MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Defensive player of the year: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers. Coach of the year: Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans. Executive of the year: Belichick, Patriots. Assistant coach of the year: Leslie Frazier, Bills. Comeback player: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys. Rookie of the year: Micah Parsons, Cowboys.
OFFENSE: QB: Brady, Bucs. RB: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts; Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers. WR: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams; Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers. OT: Trent Williams, San Francisco 49ers; Tristan Wirfs, Bucs. OG: Quenton Nelson, Colts; Zack Martin, Cowboys. OC: Jason Kelce, Philadelphia Eagles. TE: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens.
DEFENSE: DE: Watt, Steelers; Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns. DT: Aaron Donald, Rams; Cameron Heyward, Steelers. OLB: Darius Leonard, Colts; Parsons, Cowboys. MLB: De’Vondre Campbell, Packers. CB: J.C. Jackson, Pats; Trevon Diggs, Cowboys. S: Jordan Poyer, Bills; Kevin Byard, Titans.
SPECIAL TEAMS: PK: Justin Tucker, Ravens. P: Bryan Anger, Cowboys. KR: Braxton Berrios, New York Jets. PR: Devin Duvernay, Ravens. Coverage: Miles Killebrew, Steelers.
If the Bills beat the Patriots, it pretty much makes the entire season. Two victories over Belichick in the same year – and sending the Pats packing in the playoffs? That would be a great way to remember the 2021 campaign.
Brady’s production far outpaced that of Aaron Rodgers. Conventional wisdom is that Brady has a better supporting cast than Rodgers. Nevertheless, Brady passed for 1,201 more yards than Rodgers – 1,201! – and was the least sacked QB in the NFL. ... Ekeler edged out the Browns’ Nick Chubb for the second RB spot. Another tough call was the second DT. Jeffrey Simmons of the Titans was great. But Pittsburgh’s Heyward was greater. No DT was better vs. the Bills this year. ... The safety voting will be interesting, because there are so many good candidates. Denver’s Justin Simmons and Pittsburgh’s Mikah Fitzpatrick will get a lot of votes. Fitzpatrick led all safeties with 124 tackles. Kansas City’s Tyrann Mathieu is great, but didn’t produce as many big plays. New England’s Devin McCourty is like Micah Hyde, perennially underrated. Seattle’s Quandre Diggs and the Chargers’ Derwin James (117 tackles) are great, too. ... Killebrew blocked the punt that gave Pittsburgh the win over Buffalo.
On the All-AFC team ballot, I picked Josh Allen as the QB, Poyer at safety and Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker. I also had Akron High School graduate J.C. Tretter of Cleveland at center. He had a superb year.
