Welcome to a playoff edition of the Bills Mailbag. Letβs get right to your questions β¦
Ed in Tonawanda asks: Do you think Isaiah McKenzie will have a bigger role on the offense given his success last time against the Patriots? Do you see the Bills extending Mitch Morse after this season? I'm hoping Brian Daboll is less conservative than he was against the Jets β weather permitting.
Darrell S. asks: I've always considered the Josh Allen-to-Cole Beasley connection to be similar to the Tom Brady-to-Julian Edelman connection: A dynamic first-down machine that cannot be stopped even if you know itβs coming. I think it's time to give the Pats this farewell gift β don't you?
Jay: Playing time for McKenzie and Beasley could depend on what coverage the Patriots elect to play. If they use a man-coverage scheme, it would make sense for the Bills to play McKenzie more given the big game he had in Week 16. If the Patriots elect to go to a zone, Beasley has traditionally been excellent against that kind of coverage.
As for Morse, thatβs an interesting question. He has one year remaining on his contract, with a big cap hit of $11.25 million. The Bills could lower that number one of three ways. They could simply release him, which would leave behind a dead money cap hit of $3.75 million. They could ask him to take a pay cut, although Morse took a $2 million trim last year and might not be all that keen on the idea after a strong season. They could also try to extend his contract, which could move money into future years. Before the season, I would have bet big money on Morse being a cap casualty. Now, Iβm not quite as sure. It seems highly unlikely heβll be back at his current cap number. I could see the Bills extending him to lessen the financial burden in 2022 β if thatβs something he would be interested in doing.
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John Jarzynski asks: When I last checked, the Bills were 24th in the league in run after catch. What can this be attributed to? Any chance the league will redefine what a fumble is? One player holding the runner while the second player punches at the ball is not a football skill.
Jay: The Bills finished the season ranked 19th in yards after catch, according to the website pro-football-reference.com. A big part of that is their average depth of target. The Bills finished tied for sixth in that category, at 8.2 yards per attempt. It stands to reason the further the ball is thrown down field, the less yards after the catch are available. Of course, there are other factors. At times, quarterback Josh Allen can be more accurate with his throws, giving his receivers a chance to run with the ball after a completion instead of having to jump or slide to make a catch.
As for redefining what a fumble is, in the scenario youβre talking about, the only solution would be for officials to declare forward progress stopped in a quicker fashion. My guess is players on both sides would not want to see that happen. Offensive players are never going to stop fighting for yards, and defenses will continue to try to pry the ball free because, well, it sometimes works. I have no desire to see officials try to "redefine" anything in a league that still can't answer what a catch is.
Al Runkel asks: My question is on the opening coin flip. Iβve never seen them do a coin flip multiple times, like the three times they did in the Jets game. I asked friends who watched the game on TV (I was at the game) if the commentators said anything about it. They all said it wasn't shown. So, this is how conspiracies are started. Why did they flip the coin three times? Did they flip it till the Jets won the flip? Color me happy that they finally found an offensive line combination that works in pass and run blocking. Funny that the season's starting guards are now backups. Question, why did it take so long?
Jay: I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, Al, but even this one is too tinfoil hat for me. I think the coin just didnβt, you know, flip. NFL Films captured video of the three attempts.Β
Third time was the charm during this coin toss π @JoshAllenQB | @StefonDiggs pic.twitter.com/9TVZsxSlnn
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 10, 2022
As for your second question, itβs a fair one. Part of the change on the line came when the coaching staff inserted rookie Spencer Brown at right tackle. Itβs understandable that they werenβt ready for him to start on opening day. That moved Daryl Williams inside. The other guard spot has been a revolving door, but Ryan Bates has made the most of his opportunity and secured the job. Iβd say he deserves credit for that, although itβs fair to ask if the coaching staff maybe should have given him a chance sooner. Itβs somewhat surprising that it didnβt happen, because the coaching staff hasnβt been shy about making changes up front. About that β¦
Ed Helinski asks: Itβs good to see Ryan Bates getting an opportunity to play regularly. It seems that he brings stability and has been a catalyst for the offensive line. In your estimation, what does Bates bring to the table for the Billsβ offense? Where can I register for the Ryan Bates Fan Club?
Jay: Guard is a tricky position to evaluate, especially considering Iβm not a coach and I have no idea what Batesβ individual responsibility is on each play. With that said, heβs seemed to pass the eyeball test. Josh Allen hasnβt been sacked in the past three games and the Bills are running the ball better than they ever have. All that would suggest the offensive line is doing its part, and Bates has contributed to that success. As for the fan club, I think you just volunteered to become the president.
Doug Pagano asks: In the first two meetings between New England and the Bills, the Patriots averaged about 5 yards per carry for 371 yards. Do you think the Bills should try using five defensive linemen when the Pats bring in a sixth offensive lineman and fullback to try to limit the run and force them to pass with their rookie quarterback?
Jay: Thatβs unlikely. Rather, I could see the Bills playing more of a traditional, 4-3 defense, which theyβve done in both games against New England. In the first meeting, linebacker Tyrel Dodson played more snaps than nickel cornerback Taron Johnson. Dodson was in the game because A.J. Klein was on the Covid list. In the second game, Johnson played 45 snaps, but Klein still played 19. There were entire games this season where the Bills stayed exclusively in their nickel defense, so that number for Klein was actually significant. If the Patriots go with a heavy package designed to run the ball, expect Klein to be in the game more often. Also, donβt rule out reserve nickel cornerback Siran Neal seeing some time. He played 13 snaps in the second meeting, and gives the Bills some more size than Johnson. A fifth defensive lineman is not a lineup Iβd expect to see much.
Brenda Alesii asks: Hall of Famer Kurt Warner recently said that Josh Allen still misses too many throws because of his technique, adding that he misses too many reads. As a result, Warner doesnβt think the Bills can win the Super Bowl. Think he has a point?
Jay: Warner has forgotten more this week about playing quarterback than Iβll ever know, but my initial reaction to that is, canβt he say the same thing about every quarterback at times? Itβs true Allen doesnβt always do things by the book, but thatβs what makes him a special player. Iβm not saying the Bills will win the Super Bowl this year with Allen, but I absolutely think heβs talented enough to one day do it, and saying anything else comes across as a hot take. Under Allen, the Bills have won back-to-back division titles and last season advanced to the AFC championship game. Theyβre close.
Matt Leader asks: Given the frigid forecast for Saturday, Iβm wondering how the cold impacts a quarterbackβs ability to throw and a receiverβs ability to catch? On a related note, are you aware of any rules that prohibit players from using synthetic warmers on the field? Iβve got to think quarterbacks playing in cold weather conditions would load their pouch with as many Hothands as theyβd carry if it was allowed.
Jay: We asked Stefon Diggs that question this week. Here was his response: βI tell (Josh Allen) to take some off it. β¦ I dropped a touchdown the other week in Atlanta. He was zipping that ball. I was like, 'Look, give me a little easy one.' He just got a strong arm. He can't help it. So, I make fun of him all the time, like, βYou don't even throw the ball that hard,β and then next thing you know I drop one in the end zone. I'll be like, 'Yeah, give me a little floater next time.' β
Allen, as well, was asked whether the cold changes his approach, specifically the velocity with which he throws his passes. Hereβs his response: βI think the second you start messing with mechanics and stuff, especially this late in the season, it only tends to make things worse. You just got to trust guys out there, you got to trust yourself and what youβre seeing and what youβre throwing, and go based on that. Itβs going to be hard for both teams to catch the ball and itβs going to be hard for both teams to hit and break tackles.β
As for hand warmers, the pouches some players use have those in them, so to my knowledge, thereβs nothing preventing them from being used.
David Rynkowski asks: Can you explain how a top-three defense in the NFL has no Pro Bowl selections, while the offensive line, which does not seem to be able to open holes for a running game, has a Pro Bowl selection?
Jay: Not exactly, but Iβll try. The injury to TreβDavious White very likely cost the Billsβ defense a Pro Bowler. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde have had seasons worthy of consideration, but itβs entirely possible they took votes away from each other, and the AFC safeties chosen β Kevin Byard, Derwin James and Tyrann Mathieu β are all fantastic players. Itβs possible Poyer and/or Hyde are having better seasons than at least one of them, but the Pro Bowl has always been a bit of a popularity contest, and Mathieu probably wins that nationally.
At inside linebacker, the Coltsβ Darius Leonard was a lock, and the Raidersβ Denzel Perryman is second in the AFC in tackles. Is anyone going to fight all that hard that Tremaine Edmunds or Matt Milano have had a better season than Perryman did?
I was surprised Dion Dawkins made the game, but I also don't watch every other left tackle enough to have a strong take on it either way. The Pro Bowl voting is flawed. The players themselves hardly even vote, and pay almost no attention to whom theyβre voting for. Fans are naturally going to vote for players on their favorite teams. That leaves it up to coaches, and who knows how much time they spend on it during their 23-hour workdays?
Itβs tempting to say the Pro Bowl doesnβt matter, but with incentives tied to the game, it absolutely does. It would be good if the league came up with a better way of identifying who the best players truly are in a given year, although Iβm not exactly sure what that would look like.
Greg Nichols asks: I am quite reluctant to question play calls. I'm not the professional involved. Yet, in a crucial fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-goal situation, if Josh Allen takes the snap and launches himself like a missile over the top of the blockers, I'm not seeing how that could be stopped. Knowing No. 17's mentality, he would not be reluctant to do it. Injury risk? He puts himself in greater jeopardy at other times. Agree, or no?
Jay: Agree. Although, it should be pointed out, that if you and I can see that, Greg, itβs a good bet the thought has crossed Bill Belichickβs mind a time or two, as well. Nevertheless, it does seem like that would produce the needed yardage more times than not, so it is a bit odd why the Bills havenβt done more of it.
Ken R. asks: Why does the NFL allow teams to announce who they would like to interview from other teams before the Super Bowl is played? I would think this is a distraction even though the candidates still in the playoffs say they are focused on the next game. The Bills could find themselves without offensive and defensive coordinators along with an assistant GM almost immediately after the Super Bowl.
Jay: The Bills proposed a rule last year to delay the hiring process for new head coaches until after the Super Bowl, for the reason you mention, Ken. Instead, the league went the other way, allowing assistants from teams to interview even while the regular season is still taking place. That rule barely made a ripple, however, and the timeline has remained much the same this year. That being said, coaches are fired right after the regular season ends, and reports of interview requests filter in shortly thereafter. So far, Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier are reported to have interviews lined up with both the Dolphins and the Bears. I 100% agree that has to be some sort of distraction. They are doing all they can to prepare for the postseason, while at the same time pursuing their dream job. I totally donβt understand why the NFL doesnβt ban coaching interviews β and hires β from being made until after the Super Bowl. That way, all candidates and teams are on equal footing. Teams understandably want to get a person on the job as soon as possible, but weβve heard far too much about how candidates on teams that make it to the Super Bowl suffer because teams donβt want to wait that long. It would benefit all involved to have a hiring freeze until after the Super Bowl. The NFL, being the hype machine that it is, is also missing an opportunity to make headlines in the days that follow the Super Bowl.
Paul Basinski asks: Good to see the Billsβ running game has peaked at playoff time. Also in Buffalo's favor versus New England is the way the defense has played much of the year. Do you agree that how far we do (or don't) go in the postseason rests with Josh Allen? If so, what's the best game plan to maximize his strengths and minimize some of the nagging weaknesses he continued to show this season?
Jay: Of course the biggest factor in the Billsβ postseason success is Allen. That can be said for every teamβs quarterback. As for the game plan, Iβll leave that to Daboll, who gets paid millions to come up with it. The chess match against Belichickβs defense will be a fascinating one, to be sure. As you pointed out, Paul, the Bills have discovered a run game at the right time, which should help to take some of the pressure off Allen. The big key, in my mind, is the turnover battle. If the Bills can take care of the football, they have to like their chances of Allen outscoring New England rookie quarterback Mac Jones.
Jim Majors asks: During the Jets game, I noticed Josh Allenβs pre-snap verbiage at the line of scrimmage included Peyton Manningβs famous βOmaha!β Why not βCheektowaga!β or βTonawanda!β Also, think of the potential advertising dollars that the Bills could reap, if he injected βMighty Tacoβ or βDuffsβ into his line calls. Please weigh in with your thoughts on this important matter. Sincerely (with tongue planted firmly in cheek).
Jay: If weβre going the marketing route, I propose βRead Jay Skurski daily in The Buffalo News,β although I admit itβs a bit wordy. It might confuse the defense, though.
Thanks to everyone for the questions. As a reminder, I try (within reason) to answer all that I get, and some that didn’t pertain exactly to this week’s game were held for later. You can submit questions to me via email, jskurski@buffnews.com, or via Twitter, @JaySkurski. Enjoy the game.
