Welcome to a Halloween edition of the Bills Mailbag. Let’s reach into our bag of treats to see what you all came up with this week …
Paul Basinski asks: What's up with all these field goals in the red zone? Very different from a season ago. Sure, the Bills are still putting up plenty of points, but something feels less explosive about the offense this year inside the 20. Is this a reason for concern, and what's the probable cause?
Jay: There isn’t one specific thing that’s gone wrong in the red zone, or if there is, the Bills aren’t saying what it is. Players and coaches have given the standard “we have to execute better” line to explain the struggles, although Stefon Diggs shed some light on it when asked Wednesday why the team hasn’t been able to reach the end zone more consistently: “Things do get tighter down there and with things being tighter, routes got to be crisper, throws got to be tighter – there’s going to be smaller windows. You’ve got to work as a unit. At the end of the (Tennessee) game, I feel like we didn’t help ourselves. We could have done some things differently, especially at the wideout position.”
Diggs is right. The Bills need to be crisper in their execution inside the 20-yard line. The decisive play against Tennessee is a perfect example. Quarterback Josh Allen gets that first down the vast majority of the time in that situation, but on this occasion, he didn’t, partially because he lost his footing and partially because left tackle Dion Dawkins didn’t get enough of Titans lineman Jeffery Simmons.
As it stands, the Bills rank 26th in red-zone touchdown percentage heading into Week 8, converting just 55.17% of the time. Absolutely it’s a cause for concern and an area you can bet coach Sean McDermott spent a good amount of time self-scouting during the bye week.
Ed Helinski asks: In honor of Halloween, what scares you the most about the Bills and their game performances so far this season? Or, might frightening things be coming later in the schedule and season?
Jay: Bonus points, Ed, for working Halloween into your question. As a reward, I’ll give you two answers – one for offense and one for defense. Paul’s question above references my biggest concern offensively. The inability at times to finish drives with touchdowns has cost the Bills before – the wild-card playoff loss to Houston after the 2019 season is a great example. This year, it’s a big reason why the team lost to Tennessee. A 6-0 Bills lead after the first quarter probably should have been 14-0. If it was, perhaps the Titans aren’t able to rely on stud running back Derrick Henry as much as they did.
Defensively, the loss to Tennessee exposed a potential flaw – an inability to stop the run. Granted, there is only one Derrick Henry on the schedule, but the Bills’ defense didn’t have an answer for Tennessee’s physical style. Expect teams to try and copy that blueprint until the Bills prove they can stop it.
Doug Pagano asks: The trade deadline is coming up soon. What areas of the team do you think General Manager Brandon Beane might address? Seems to me we have an excess of defensive linemen and a shortage at tight end.
Paul Catalano asks: Reports are teams are interested in some of our guys up front on the defensive line – Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes. Do you see the Bills making a move? And what gets brought back in return? A pick?
LDSports asks: Do you foresee the Bills making a few moves prior to the trade deadline? Brandon Beane always seems to be active!
Buffalo Storm Chaser asks: Any trade targets you’d like to see made before the deadline (position or players)?
John Jarzynski asks: What would it take for the Bills to trade a defensive end on an expiring contract?
Jay: Let’s group all the trade-deadline questions together. Here’s why I would consider it unlikely the Bills trade a player off their current roster: This is a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Unless it’s a player-for-player swap, what’s the benefit of trading Addison or Hughes – as Paul mentions – for a 2022 draft pick? That does nothing to help the Bills chase a championship. Any move that Beane makes has to be made with that in mind.
The lone exception to that might be offensive guard Cody Ford, who has very clearly fallen out of favor. If a team makes a worthwhile offer for Ford, it might make sense for the Bills to cut their losses instead of keeping him on the bench. To a lesser degree, the same might be true for defensive tackle Vernon Butler Jr., a former first-round draft pick of Carolina who has been a healthy inactive the past three games.
As for positional targets, tight end has been mentioned with Dawson Knox out, but his absence may not be all that long. With that being the case, a move for a tight end isn’t a necessity.
No. 2 cornerback has also been mentioned as an area the Bills may want to strengthen. That’s logical, but it’s important to remember the Bills have just a shade over $4 million in salary cap space available. While it would be great if the Dolphins left Xavien Howard in Western New York after Sunday’s game, the Bills would have to make a corresponding move to fit him under the salary cap. One way the Bills could do that would be to ship out a current contract, which John mentions as a possibility, but that’s a lot of moving parts considering the NFL trade deadline is generally a snooze fest.
Beane’s only true deadline move in four years on the job was acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from the Carolina Panthers in 2017.
bk asks: Why was A.J. Epenesa inactive against the Titans? Hasn't he earned the chance to be active every game?
Jay: The snap counts showed that Epenesa was trending toward being a healthy inactive. Against Kansas City in Week 5, he played just 34% of the snaps. Epenesa had a great game against the Dolphins Week 2, but quite frankly, hasn’t done much since. According to analytics website Pro Football Focus, he had eight quarterback pressures against the Dolphins … and just four combined in the three games that followed. One good game against Miami is not enough to guarantee a spot in the lineup for the rest of the season, especially when considering how deep the Bills are along the defensive line. The question now becomes how Epenesa responds to being a healthy inactive. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was asked about that Thursday. Here was his response: "He did a great job in practice just being able to handle the news that he was going to be down. And it's not not easy having those conversations with players, especially when they have played well, like he played in our first Miami game,” Frazier said. “Really played well. He played well in our opening game as well, but he handled it extremely well and his opportunity's going to come. He'll be back out there again and eventually get back to playing those same number of snaps that he was playing before.”
Joe C. asks: Why can't the NFL conduct overtime like the college games? Is the NFL too bullheaded for this idea? For a billion-dollar industry to decide the game on the flip of a coin seems crazy to me. Wait until the playoffs and Super Bowl are played! Hopefully, the Bills don't get shafted by the stupid decisions of the NFL. Your thoughts?
Jay: Respectfully, Joe, I disagree. I don’t like college overtime. The NFL version is superior to me. The game isn’t decided by the flip of a coin. Yes, the team that wins the coin flip has a chance to win, but to do so, it has to score a touchdown. That means the defense has a chance to stop them. You could make the case that both teams should have a chance to possess the ball in overtime, which the league made a move toward when it changed the rule and made it a requirement for the team receiving the ball first in overtime to score a touchdown to win – meaning a field goal isn’t enough. The current overtime structure works well, in my opinion.
Tom Graham asks: General Manager Brandon Beane, coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have said NFL games are won at the line of scrimmage. The Bills are focusing on the offensive line and defensive line when drafting and acquiring players. I agree 100% with them. Do you agree with their player acquisition strategy? The championship teams in the 1960s had Tom Sestak (DT) and Billy Shaw (OG). The Bills’ Super Bowl teams of the 1990s had Bruce Smith (DE) and Kent Hull (C).
Jay: My colleague Mark Gaughan, who knows as much football as anyone I know, always says when in doubt, draft big guys. Under Beane, the Bills have done that, especially in the first two rounds. Over the last three drafts, the Bills have selected defensive ends Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham and A.J. Epenesa, defensive tackle Ed Oliver and offensive lineman Cody Ford in the first two rounds. In the case of Ford, that pick isn’t looking too good. The jury is still out to some degree on all the others, although Rousseau and Oliver are starters and Basham and Epenesa have participated in the defensive line rotation. Overall, it’s hard to disagree with most of Beane’s roster constructions.
Karen Colville asks: Do the Bills actually meet and practice or is the bye a vacation week?
Jay: It’s a true vacation week. McDermott encourages his players to get away as much as they can. “You got to get the mind off football for a few days, but it's a job that never stops,” Allen said.
Keith Pascucci asks: There is something about the punter I just don’t like. He sure seems slow to get the ball off. What do you think?
Jay: Of all the advanced stats now available, none of them I’ve seen track time of punt from the time of snap (someone get on that). With that being the case, we have to go off the eyeball test, and you’re right, Keith, it does seem like it takes Matt Haack a good amount of time to get off his punts. Undoubtedly, that perception is fueled partly because of the punt he had blocked against Pittsburgh. It’s worth pointing out that he’s gotten off every punt cleanly since, but each time he’s back, it feels like fans are holding their collective breath.
Buffalofan asks: Will the Bills possibly shut out the Dolphins a second time in a season?
Jay: I won’t predict it, only because shutouts are so rare. Miami also should have its starting quarterback available for longer than the two series Tua Tagovailoa managed in Week 2. Given the smackdown they suffered in the first meeting, you have to expect the Dolphins will come out determined to have a better showing this time against the Bills. They’ll likely do that, which result in some points being scored … but not nearly enough to win the game.
Sarah asks: We're not quite halfway, but which Bills player do you think will break out in the second half of the season? I'm curious if Brian Daboll will experiment with Mitch Trubisky at all with any trick plays … or save something for Tampa Bay or playoffs?
Jay: Oliver. The third-year defensive tackle has been solid thus far, with three tackles for loss and two quarterback hits, but has yet to record a sack. There is good reason to believe those are coming. As for using Trubisky, the question to ask is, what does he do better than Allen? He’s not as strong or fast, so it’s hard to see why the Bills would use him over their starter. The line of thinking about saving something for the postseason is a good one, though. If you go back to the wild-card game against Houston after the 2019 season, Allen caught a touchdown pass from wide receiver John Brown on the Bills’ first drive. That certainly felt like a play the offense was keeping under wraps until the playoffs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Daboll dial up something like that again at that time.
Luigi Mike Speranza asks: The Titans seem to have our number lately. Do you think they will be our nemesis keeping us from advancing in the playoffs and the Super Bowl going forward?
Jay: The possibility can’t be ruled out, although I still think the Bills should be considered the favorite for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Sure, Tennessee has beaten Buffalo in back-to-back years, but both of those games were in Nashville. The Titans have a road loss to the Jets, of all teams, this season. The Monday night game had a lot of fans riled up, but it didn’t change my outlook for the rest of the season. The Bills moved the ball fine on offense. If they can clean up their performance in the red zone, I like their chances against any team, the Titans included.
Matt Leach asks: Pizza or tacos?
Jay: This one’s easy – pizza. Matt could have made it more challenging by roping in burritos, fajitas and quesadillas with tacos, but he didn’t do that. If I still get to choose from all of them, I’m more than happy to say adios to tacos and keep pizza.
As always, thank you for the questions, which can be submitted via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or via Twitter, @JaySkurski. Happy Halloween!
