When the Bills throw: Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders have combined for 61 catches, without a drop between them. That’s a big reason why quarterback Josh Allen has gotten away with ranking just 25th in Sports Info Solution’s tracking of “catchable throws,” a statistic that is found by dividing the number of throws deemed catchable by a quarterback’s total pass attempts. Allen is at 83.1% in that metric. With tight end Dawson Knox out because of a hand injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bills run more four-receiver sets, meaning Gabriel Davis could be a sleeper daily fantasy play. Miami is allowing 297.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. EDGE: Bills.
When the Bills run: Pop quiz: Without looking it up, where do the Bills rank in rushing yards? You’d probably be surprised to learn it’s sixth overall. Allen’s 214 yards on the ground certainly helps, but Devin Singletary ranks tied for sixth among running backs with an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Singletary burned the Dolphins for a 46-yard touchdown run in the Bills’ Week 2 win. EDGE: Bills.
When the Dolphins throw: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played fairly well since returning from the broken ribs he suffered against the Bills in Week 2, thanks to a massive hit from A.J. Epenesa. Say it with me, though: Tagovailoa doesn’t have elite arm talent, which is a big reason why there is so much doubt about whether he’s truly the quarterback of the future for Miami. The Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which leads to them trying whatever they can to give Tagovailoa time to make plays. According to analytics website Pro Football Focus, only 49% of Tagovailoa’s dropbacks do not have a run-pass option, screen, rollout or play action attached to it – the highest percentage in the league. EDGE: Bills.
When the Dolphins run: In a word, yuck. Miami averages just 80.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Dolphins don’t have a running back in the top 35 in the league in rushing yards, with Myles Gaskin’s team-leading 243 ranking 37th. In other words, the Dolphins won’t be nearly the challenge the Bills faced in Week 6 against Derrick Henry and the Titans. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: The Dolphins traded primary return man Jakeem Grant to Chicago three weeks ago, meaning rookie Jaylen Waddle, the team’s first-round draft pick, has taken on a bigger role. Waddle averaged 19.3 yards and two touchdowns on 38 punt returns at Alabama. He averaged 23.8 yards with one touchdown on nine kickoff returns in college, but so far hasn’t had that kind of success at the next level, averaging 19.0 yards on two kick returns and making fair catches on three of his four punt returns. Wide receiver Mack Hollins leads Miami with four tackles on special teams. EDGE: Bills.
Coaching: Brian Flores is likely heading into his final couple months as Miami’s head coach. It’s hard to see how he survives what has so far been an epic failure of a season for the Dolphins. Surely, Bills fans won’t shed many tears over that. Flores’ decision to have co-offensive coordinators this season was doomed from the start, and his stubborn refusal to switch out of man-to-man defense, even when it’s clear it’s not working, has been a source of frustration for Miami fans. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 17
