Here are my five takes on the Buffalo Bills’ game Sunday at 1 p.m. against the Los Angeles Chargers at Bills Stadium.
1. The disappointment over the loss at Arizona cannot linger.
As bitter and excruciating as it was, that last-second heartbreaker against the Cardinals must be pushed aside by now. That’s much easier said than done, of course, because of how the Bills allowed a sure victory to be ripped from their grasp on a play that drew media attention beyond the NFL and even sports in general.
Two weeks have passed since Kyler Murray’s miraculous touchdown throw to DeAndre Hopkins 32 seconds after Josh Allen’s spectacular TD connection with Stefon Diggs gave the Cards a two-point win. Either that is a enough time for the players and coaches to have gotten over the crushing nature of the defeat, or too much time to think about it and allow it to become a distraction.
Members of the defense, and especially the three players who failed to prevent Hopkins from making the catch on a jump ball in the end zone (cornerback Tre’Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer), would figure to have the toughest time getting over it.
“In our league, you have to be able to move on,” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier told reporters on a video call earlier in the week. “Whether we would have won that game, or, in this case, we didn’t come away with the win, you have to be able to move on. Seven wins or eight wins don’t get you a whole lot in the National Football League, so for our guys, it’s all about moving on from that game and put all our attention and focus on the L.A. Chargers. Period.”
2. Find a way to overcome another game without John Brown. That means a much bigger contribution from rookie Gabe Davis.
There is every reason to expect the Chargers will generate some points, and this game could go the way of the other back-and-forth type the Bills have had several times this season. Therefore, the Bills’ offense must be at its prolific best.
This will be the third game that Brown, who the Bills list with an ankle injury and who has been bothered by knee and ankle problems for most of the season, will miss. When he is out of the lineup, the Bills’ passing game loses something that Davis so far has fallen short of providing.
Allen still has been able to get production from his other two main targets, Diggs and Cole Beasley, but there just isn’t the same level of explosiveness without the added dimension of Brown, both in terms of his play-making and ability to draw deep coverage from Diggs. The previous two games Brown missed were the Bills’ Oct. 13 loss at Tennessee and their Oct. 25 victory against the New York Jets.
Against the Titans, Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets for 106 yards and no touchdowns, followed by Beasley with six catches for 53 yards. Davis caught five of nine targets for 58 yards. Against the Jets, the Bills had no TDs. Beasley led the team with 11 catches for 112 yards, followed by Diggs with six receptions (on 11 targets) for 48 yards. Davis had only one catch for 11 yards on three targets.
3. Remind Justin Herbert that he is, in fact, a rookie.
Nothing in the way the Chargers’ quarterback is performing would indicate that he only has nine NFL starts. He has completed 68 percent of his passes (238 or 350) for 2,699 yards and 22 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. He has a passer rating of 104.7.
The Chargers have lost seven of those games, but Herbert isn’t the reason. They have many other shortcomings and have developed a habit of losing close games against upper-tier opponents.
The Bills have been able to study plenty of NFL video of Herbert in action. Plus, they have had extra time to devise a scheme to take advantage of his inexperience. Expect plenty of pass-rush combinations with a variety of blitzes and fake blitzing. There also likely will be different coverage looks with disguising designed to prompt Herbert to make throws to areas he shouldn’t.
As usual, pressure will be paramount in the Bills’ efforts to prevent him from making the most of Keenan Allen and other pass-catchers.
4. Is there any chance the problems with the running game were solved during the bye?
Maybe. There was a lot to fix, given the mostly dreadful work the Bills’ ground game has done for 10 weeks to put it 27th in the NFL. Assuming all the repairs could be made in a matter of days (with game-specific work taking precedent this past week) is probably unrealistic, especially now that highly athletic left guard Cody Ford has been lost for the season with a knee injury suffered in practice Wednesday.
That the Bills’ offensive profile this season is that of a pass-first team that sprinkles in the run occasionally is hardly a revelation. The question is, are there going to be times when offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will see the need to lean more heavily on the run as he did in one game, the Nov. 1 victory against New England? The obvious reason why Daboll leaned on the run game then was the Patriots’ terrible run defense.
However, what about when the Bills go against an opponent capable of piling up points with a quick-strike attack? The Chargers are such a team. They also have the league’s 15th-ranked run defense.
What will it take to get the Bills’ run game in gear?
“I think it comes as the game flows. Just having more reps at it during the game and things like that,” rookie Zack Moss told reporters Friday. “It’s kind of a rep thing. You’ve kind of have got to get into a rhythm, and that works for the offensive line and that works for the backs and everything like that.”
5. Is there any chance the problems with the run defense were solved during the bye?
Again, maybe. There is even more to fix here, considering the Bills rank 28th in the NFL against the run and have yet to demonstrate they can handle average backs, let alone elite-level players at the position.
The Chargers are tied for 10th in the league in rushing. Their coach, Anthony Lynn, believes in more of a power-oriented offensive approach. He will likely try to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible to take advantage of the vulnerability in the Bills’ run defense, while also being mindful of the need to minimize the time Allen and Diggs spend on the field.
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Game details
TV: CBS. Announcers: Greg Gumbel (play-by-play), Rich Gannon (analyst).
Radio: Bills Radio Network. Buffalo-WGR 550 AM; Toronto-Fan 590 AM; Rochester-WCMF 96.5 FM and WROC 950 AM; Syracuse-WTKW 99.5 FM and WTKV 105.5 FM. Announcers: John Murphy (play-by-play), Steve Tasker (analyst).
Series history: The Chargers lead the series, 25-12-2 (including postseason).
Bills injury report: Out: WR John Brown (ankle).
Chargers injury report: Out: DE Melvin Ingram III, LB Uchenna Nwosu, CB Casey Hayward Jr. Questionable: RB Kalen Ballage.
Point spread: The Bills are a 5 1/2-point favorite at vegasinsider.com.
Did you know: The Bills have generated at least 20 first downs in all 10 of their games this season. If they do so Sunday, the 11-game streak will be the longest in team history.
Next: The Bills play the first of three prime-time games remaining on their schedule when they face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, Dec. 7, at Levi’s Stadium.
