The first half of the first round of the NFL draft went reasonably well for the Buffalo Bills, even though their three AFC East rivals had prime picks.
Yes, the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets got better Thursday. No question, the division got a little tougher, but it could have been worse for the Bills in terms of big-time talent flowing to their opposition.
And after the biggest picks had been made, one basic truth remained in the AFC East: The Bills have the most talented quarterback, and it’s still not all that close.
The Jets drafted Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson with the second overall pick. He has good physical traits, but he’s not as highly rated entering the NFL as the guy the Jets just discarded – Sam Darnold.
The Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is good. He’s a threat to the Bills. He had a promising rookie year, even though he was benched for a time in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Tua simply does not have as strong an arm or as big a body as Josh Allen. He’s 6-foot, 217. And Tua has a track record of durability concerns.
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New England found its new franchise quarterback in Alabama’s Mac Jones with the 15th pick. But like Tua, Jones is not physically imposing and he doesn’t have a cannon arm. He’s 6-2 1/2 and 217 pounds, and he’s not a big threat outside the pocket.
If New England had landed Ohio State’s Justin Fields, we might be writing a different column. Fields has more ability to destroy defensive schemes with pure athleticism and he has a better arm than Jones. But Chicago moved ahead of New England and nabbed Fields at No. 10.
Let’s take a closer look at the rivals’ big draft moves, starting with the No. 2 overall pick.
The Jets had no choice but to get rid of Darnold and draft a QB, if only for economic reasons. They get their quarterback on a cheap deal for the next four years.
Is Wilson better than Darnold? Most draft analysts had a slightly higher grade on Darnold coming out of Southern California. Wilson has the ability to make ridiculous throws on the move, off schedule. That’s one of Darnold's best attributes. New York’s new offense will run like San Francisco’s, with a heavy play-action and bootleg game to get the QB outside the pocket.
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“His ability to play on the move, create things, the off-platform the funny body throws, the dropped-arm angles is big because playing quarterback in that offense isn’t stagnant,” ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said of Wilson on a conference call with reporters last week. “It’s fluid. He plays best when he’s fluid. His skill set is not all that different from Sam Darnold’s. He’s got a skill set can take that offense to the next level. They can major in all that hardball play-action, that bootleg play-action, that get-him-on-the-move aspect of things. As long as the pieces around him are good, he can elevate the production of that offense.”
That’s the good news for the Jets. Yet Wilson will have a big adjustment going from BYU to the NFL.
“I have concerns about Zack Wilson," said Orlovsky, the former 12-year NFL journeyman QB. “I think his job playing quarterback was the easiest of the big five last year.”
The big five, of course, along with Wilson, are Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, Fields and Jones.
“I think his team was the most dominant when it comes to their competition,” Orlovsky said. “I think he wasn’t tasked last year with the burden of playing quarterback – and the difficulty that comes with it – as much as the other quarterbacks or as much as what the reality of the NFL will be.”
“Zack had all day to throw,” said Orlovsky, whistling as if he’s scanning the field with no pass rush. “And his receivers were wide open.”
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Down in Miami, the Dolphins desperately needed a big playmaker. Waddle is a burner.
However, it would have been worse if the Dolphins got all-world tight end Kyle Pitts. He went No. 4 to Atlanta. Then, LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, who’s bigger and a little higher rated than Waddle, went No. 5 to Cincinnati.
Furthermore, Miami General Manager Chris Grier doesn’t have an awesome batting average on talent acquisition. The Dolphins are a good team. They went 10-6 last year. Their coach, Bill Belichick disciple Brian Flores, is impressive. But Grier hasn’t taken as much advantage of all of Miami’s cap space and resources as he might have. Miami could be even farther along in their team building right now.
Consider: Miami spent $45 million in real cash in 2020 for free-agent signees Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy and Ereck Flowers. All three of them were jettisoned this spring.
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Miami has done a lot of one-step-back, one-step-forward maneuvering. Yes, they got a phenomenal draft haul in the trade that sent left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Houston. It was the right move. But they still don’t have a left tackle as good as Tunsil. They got good return on the trade that sent Minkah Fitzpatrick to Pittsburgh. But he’s a lot better than either of their current safeties, Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain.
At No. 18, the Dolphins picked Miami Hurricanes defensive end Jaelen Phillips. A series of injuries, including concussions, forced Phillips into temporary retirement from football while at UCLA. After the 2018 season, Phillips transferred to Miami and came back to establish himself as an explosive force off the edge.
“Jaelan Philips is all going to be dependent on where teams are with him with stuff off the field," NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said before the draft. "Because on the field, he’s a top-10 pick."
This is a huge draft for Grier and the Fish, with six picks in the top three rounds. They need four of them to be good.
Finally in New England, Bill Belichick stood pat and got the fifth QB, the Crimson Tide’s Jones. Maybe Jones has a lot of similar traits that make Tom Brady great – intelligence, accuracy, pocket presence. But he has only 17 college starts. He played behind an elite offensive line. He played with better wide receivers the past two years than almost every quarterback in the NFL last season. Good case scenario for the Pats, Jones is the next Derek Carr.
We got out of the business of doubting Belichick a long time ago. The Pats got their QB. He should be good. He’s not as talented as Allen.
