When the Bills run: The Patriots’ run defense has struggled in recent weeks, giving up 226 yards to Jonathan Taylor and the Colts last week and 270 yards to the Titans in their last home game. Overall, New England ranks 24th in the NFL against the run. The Bills are coming off a game in which Devin Singletary ran a career-high 22 times, but it remains to be seen what kind of emphasis the Bills will put on running the ball in normal weather conditions. EDGE: Even.
When the Bills throw: Allen has accounted for 81.1% of the Bills’ yards this season, which trails only Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr (82.5%) in the AFC. Allen’s 35 total touchdowns is tied for the lead in the conference, too. He’ll look to duplicate his performance in New England last year, when he went 27 of 36 for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-9 win. It won’t be easy, though, as the Patriots’ pass defense ranks third, allowing 185.1 yards per game. The Bills will be without Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, who are both on the Ccovid-19 list. Emmanuel Sanders is expected to return from a knee injury. EDGE: Even.
When the Patriots run: Yes, it’s a trigger word, but it’s fair to use. The Patriots' 222 yards on the ground in the first matchup between these teams when it was obvious they were going to run should have been embarrassing for the Bills’ defense. If the opponent all but tells you what’s coming and you still can’t stop it, that’s not a good look. Patriots running back Damien Harris, who did most of the damage in that game against Buffalo, has been limited in practice leading up to Sunday because of a hamstring injury. Without him against the Colts, New England struggled to run the ball. The Bills’ run defense has plummeted to 16th in the NFL. EDGE: Patriots.
When the Patriots throw: It’s a good bet Mac Jones will put the ball in the air more than three times in this game. The Patriots’ rookie quarterback was up and down in a Week 15 loss to Indianapolis, going 26 of 45 for 299 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Both touchdowns went to tight end Hunter Henry. That’s something the Bills will have to be cognizant of, especially if the Patriots are without any or all of wide receivers Nelson Agholor (concussion), N’Keal Harry (hip) and Kendrick Bourne (Covid-19 list). Long a problem area, the Bills have defended opposing tight ends well this season, allowing 79 catches for 515 yards and three touchdowns. That yardage total ranks No. 6 in the NFL, while the touchdown total is tied for fourth. Overall, the Bills rank first in the NFL in allowing 175.6 passing yards per game by their opponent. They also have allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: A year after having the best special teams in the league, New England has had some notable breakdowns. That includes three blocked punts, one of which came against the Colts and led to an Indianapolis touchdown. New England ranks 17th in Football Outsiders’ special teams DVOA, an efficiency metric that factors in quality of opponent and game situation. The Bills are one spot ahead in that ranking. Not surprisingly, New England’s punt DVOA is second worst in the league, although kicker Nick Folk and punt returner Gunner Olszewski are two of the best players at their respective positions. Folk leads the league with 133 points and is 34 of 37 on field goals, while Olszewski is second with an average of 12.0 yards per punt return. EDGE: Even.
Coaching: Bills coach Sean McDermott made talk-radio waves in Boston after the first meeting against New England when he refused to – as Rex Ryan once famously put it – kiss Bill Belichick’s rings after the Patriots’ victory. While that topic was overblown, it did add a nice level of spice to the rivalry, a description that is now appropriate to use (as opposed to the Patriots’ two-decade dominance when Tom Brady was at quarterback). This is the biggest regular-season game under McDermott. He needs to coach like it. EDGE: Patriots.
Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 20
