The West Coast Conference tournament is three weeks away. The Pac-12 and Mountain West events begin four weeks from today.
Thanks to a remarkable degree of parity across the region — a development driven, in part, by the transfer portal and name, image and likeness compensation — there is little clarity on the conference tournament seeding situation.
The WCC has an obvious frontrunner, but it’s not Gonzaga.
Instead, Saint Mary’s holds a two-game lead on both the Zags and San Francisco. The race for second place is crucial because the WCC tournament grants the top two seeds byes into the semifinals.
Of note: The Zags finish the regular season on the road against the Dons and Gaels.
Over in the Pac-12, Arizona holds a one-game lead (loss column) over Washington State, which has a one-game lead over Oregon and UCLA. Then come Colorado and Stanford.
If we assume the Wildcats maintain their position on the top tier, then five teams are within two games of each other in the race for the remaining opening-round byes.
Meanwhile, the Mountain West is a glorious mess: Eight teams are within two games of first place.
Utah State is the current leader with three conference losses, followed by four teams with four losses and three more with five.
The top five finishers receive byes into the quarterfinals. Sorting through the chaos might require a lengthy trip down the list of MW tiebreakers.
All of which means the next few weeks will be loaded with matchups carrying substantial seeding implications in all three conference tournaments.
To the Best of the West rankings ...
1. Arizona (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12)
Last week: 1
Results: won at Utah 105-99 (3OT) and Colorado 99-79
NET ranking: No. 3
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Saturday)
Comment: After sweeping the Mountain swing, Arizona owns a 7-3 record in Quadrant I games and compares favorably to UConn, Purdue and Houston in that regard. But it’s unclear whether the Wildcats will have the chance to add to their total, even in the Pac-12 tournament. Only matchups against Colorado, Washington State and Utah would count as Quad I results on a neutral floor, based on current NET rankings.
2. BYU (18-6, 6-5 Big 12)Last week: 3
Results: beat Kansas State 72-66 and UCF 90-88
NET ranking: No. 9
Next up: at Oklahoma State (Saturday)
Comment: The trip to Stillwater provides a final respite (such as it is) before a ridiculous stretch against Baylor, Kansas State, Kansas, TCU and Iowa State — with three of the five on the road — that could break the Cougars. Or inject them with momentum for the postseason.
3. Colorado State (19-6, 7-5 MW)
Last week: 2
Results: beat San Jose State 66-47, lost at San Diego State 71-55
NET ranking: No. 30
Next up: vs. Utah State (Saturday)
Comment: This time next week, the MW could have five teams with at least 20 wins. Of the six power conferences, only the Big 12 is close to matching that level of collective success.
4. San Diego State (19-6, 8-4 MW)
Last week: 4
Results: lost at Nevada 70-66, beat Colorado State 71-55
NET ranking: No. 18
Next up: vs. New Mexico (Friday)
Comment: The Aztecs finished the 2023 season ranked fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency and 75th on the offensive side, per the Pomeroy advanced analytics. This season, they are 10th defensively but 48th offensively — slightly better balance.
5. Saint Mary’s (20-6, 11-0 WCC)
Last week: 6
Results: won at Portland 76-51
NET ranking: No. 14
Next up: vs. Pepperdine (Thursday)
Comment: The success of the Mountain West is helping the Gaels, who beat New Mexico, Colorado State and UNLV and lost to SDSDU and Boise State. In other words, five of their 15 non-conference dates were against a conference that could send six teams to the NCAAs.
6. Washington St.(18-6, 9-4 Pac-12)Last week: 8
Results: won at Oregon State 64-58 and Oregon 62-56
NET ranking: No. 38
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
Comment: If the success continues, Kyle Smith will receive strong support for National Coach of the Year honors. That said, the leap from award candidate to award winner is substantial. At this point, South Carolina’s Lamont Paris and North Carolina’s Hubert Davis are the frontrunners.
7. Gonzaga (18-6, 8-2 WCC)
Last week: 9
Results: beat Portland 96-64, won at Kentucky 89-85
NET ranking: No. 23
Next up: at Loyola Marymount (Thursday)
Comment: The victory in Lexington was nothing short of gargantuan for Gonzaga’s resume — the first Quad I win of the year for the Zags exactly when they needed a first-class result as a backstop in case of another stumble in WCC play.
8. New Mexico (20-5, 8-4 MW)
Last week: 5
Results: lost to UNLV 80-77, won at Nevada 83-82
NET ranking: No. 21
Next up: at San Diego State (Friday)
Comment: The home loss to UNLV hurt more than the road win at Nevada helped. That can be offset, however, with a road win Friday night.
9. Oregon (16-8, 8-5 Pac-12)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Washington 85-80, lost to WSU 62-56
NET ranking: No. 63
Next up: at Oregon State (Saturday)
Comment: Can the Ducks reach the NCAAs without winning the Pac-12 tournament? We’re increasingly skeptical, to the point of dismissing the possibility altogether. Too little time, too few opportunities and too many variables.
10. Utah State (20-4, 8-3 MW)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Boise State 80-61
NET ranking: No. 27
Next up: at Wyoming (Wednesday)
Comment: The Aggies have plenty to highlight on their resume, but the most important item is what they don’t have: They don’t have any bad losses.
11. UCLA (13-11, 8-5 Pac-12)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: won at Stanford 82-74 and Cal 61-60 NET ranking: No. 111
Next up: vs. Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: Immediately prior to their winning streak, the Bruins were 151st in the NET rankings — they have improved 40 spots over the course of five consecutive victories. When they climb 40 more, we’ll start pondering the likelihood of an at-large berth.
12. San Francisco (20-6, 9-2 WCC)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: won at Pepperdine 80-74, beat Santa Clara 71-70
NET ranking: No. 66
Next up: at Loyola Marymount (Saturday)
Comment: The Dons have won five in a row and 12 of their past 14 and are as worthy as anyone for the final spot based on recent performance. But goodness, their resume is littered with low-quality wins.
Also considered:
Boise State, Colorado, Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Nevada, UC Irvine and Utah.
