Talent matters. Coaching matters. Health matters.
The schedule matters.
Arizona has improved its roster. Jedd Fisch and his staff proved their bona fides a year ago, when they led the Wildcats to a four-win improvement and reclaimed the Territorial Cup. They head into the 2023 season without any major injuries.
Does it mean their record will continue to climb in Year 3 under Fisch?
Not necessarily.
Arizona should have a better team this season but might not have a better record. That’s because the Pac-12 Conference, despite its imminent demise, is as deep and daunting as it’s ever been.
The Wildcats have five league road games this year, their last as members of the “Conference of Champions.” The teams they miss in this cycle are Oregon and Cal.
Regardless of the location or opponent, something does feel different when assessing this season’s UA schedule: There aren’t many, if any, games that look unwinnable.
What follows are predictions for every Arizona game this year. As the actual season progresses, we reserve the right to change our minds.
GAME 1: NAU
When: Saturday, Sept. 2, 7 p.m.
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
How it could go: It’s still hard to believe that the Wildcats lost to the Lumberjacks two years ago — Arizona’s first defeat at the hands of NAU since 1932. But this is a different UA outfit. Only nine Wildcats who participated in that game are still with the team, and only three started in that game (Michael Wiley, Jordan Morgan, Gunner Maldonado). It’ll be a different story this time as Fisch puts his most disappointing defeat as Arizona’s head coach in the rearview mirror for good.
Final score: Arizona 56, NAU 17
Record to date: 1-0
Arizona running back Michael Wiley, left, high-steps out of the hands of Mississippi State safety Jalen Green during their game at Arizona Stadium last year.
GAME 2: MISSISSIPPI STATE
When: Saturday, Sept. 9, 4:30 p.m.
Where: Davis Wade Stadium; Starkville, Miss.
TV: SEC Network
How it could go: As last season’s matchup in Tucson progressed, the talent disparity between the programs became increasingly apparent. The Wildcats just didn’t have the manpower to battle the Bulldogs for 60 minutes. Arizona has closed that gap, and MSU will still be adjusting to new systems in its first season without the late Mike Leach. But upsetting a quality SEC foe on its home turf is a bit too much to ask at this stage of the program’s development.
Final score: Mississippi State 31, Arizona 24
Record to date: 1-1
GAME 3: UTEP
When: Saturday, Sept. 16, 8 p.m.
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
How it could go: The Miners have achieved a degree of respectability since the last time they faced the Wildcats — a 63-16 UA blowout win in 2017 in El Paso. UTEP went 0-12 that year, and 1-11 each of the next two seasons. Since then, the Miners are 15-18. But if Arizona can’t handle a mid-level Conference USA squad at home with relative ease, something is wrong. This one should feature relatively little drama.
Final score: Arizona 42, UTEP 21
Record to date: 2-1
GAME 4: STANFORD
When: Saturday, Sept. 23, time TBA
Where: Stanford Stadium; Stanford, Calif.
TV: TBA
How it could go: The last go-round in the Pac-12 begins at Stanford, which was still looking for a new conference home as of this writing. The Cardinal have a new head coach in Troy Taylor and are coming off their second straight 3-9 season (1-8 in the Pac-12). They return very little production, for better or worse, and barely dipped a toe in the transfer portal (league-low four commits). Although strange things can happen when the Wildcats visit the Bay Area (see Cal, 2022), we have them taking care of business here.
Final score: Arizona 27, Stanford 23
Record to date: 3-1 (1-0 Pac-12)
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., left, and Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura greet each other on the field after their game last season in Seattle. The Huskies won 49-39.
GAME 5: WASHINGTON
When: Saturday, Sept. 30, time TBA
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: TBA
How it could go: Although it didn’t feel that way at times as Michael Penix Jr., facing minimal pressure, carved up the UA defense, the Wildcats were right there in last year’s matchup in Seattle. They rallied from 18 down to make it a 3-point game with 9:51 to go. The matchups here tend to be tight; the Cats nearly upset the Huskies in 2021 (21-16 final) and in 2016 (35-28 in overtime). We see a similar scenario unfolding here against a UW squad that’s considered a College Football Playoff contender.
Final score: Washington 38, Arizona 35
Record to date: 3-2 (1-1 Pac-12)
GAME 6: USC
When: Saturday, Oct. 7, time TBA
Where: L.A. Memorial Coliseum; Los Angeles
TV: TBA
How it could go: This appears to be the toughest game on the schedule. USC brings back the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and likely No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft in QB Caleb Williams; added talent through the transfer portal, including three of Arizona’s top players; and has some freshmen who generated big-time buzz during training camp. Lincoln Riley’s second team is loaded and knows it can’t afford any slipups in its quest for the school’s first CFP berth. Pencil in Arizona’s second straight loss.
Final score: USC 42, Arizona 34
Record to date: 3-3 (1-2 Pac-12)
Arizona tight end Tanner McLachlan, left, tries to wrench his way out of the hold of Washington State linebacker Travion Brown after a catch in the backfield in the third quarter of their Pac 12 game at Arizona Stadium last season.
GAME 7: WASHINGTON STATE
When: Saturday, Oct. 14, time TBA
Where: Martin Stadium; Pullman, Wash.
TV: TBA
How it could go: This is the third leg of a brutal stretch, and Martin Stadium has been a house of horrors for Arizona in recent years. The last four times they’ve visited Pullman, the Wildcats have surrendered 45, 69, 69 and 44 points. Only one of those games was decided by fewer than 26 points (45-42 in 2015). Those results, a two-game skid and Jayden de Laura getting a second crack at his former school should give Arizona all the motivation and focus it needs to win in Pullman for the first time since 2014.
Final score: Arizona 30, Wash. State 27
Record to date: 4-3 (2-2, Pac-12)
GAME 8: OREGON STATE
When: Saturday, Oct. 28, time TBA
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: TBA
How it could go: The last time Arizona hosted Oregon State, the Beavers embarrassed the Wildcats, 56-38, in Tucson. That was in 2019 — before OSU turned the corner under Jonathan Smith. The Beavers checked in at No. 18 in the preseason AP Top 25 after a 10-3 season in which their only three losses came against Pac-12 heavyweights USC, Utah and Washington — two of those by just three points. Their rebuilding effort is about two years ahead of Arizona’s, and that will show at the end of a back-and-forth battle.
Final score: Oregon State 33, Arizona 31
Record to date: 4-4 (2-3 Pac-12)
UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet, right, avoids Arizona linebacker Sterling Lane II, left, and linebacker Jerry Roberts during the first half of their game on Nov. 12, 2022, in Pasadena, Calif.
GAME 9: UCLA
When: Saturday, Nov. 4, time TBA
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: TBA
How it could go: The Bruins enter their last season in the Pac-12 a bit under the radar, probably because of uncertainty at quarterback. If he doesn’t begin the season as the starter, we would assume that five-star freshman Dante Moore will have the job by this point. Chip Kelly’s teams always run the ball well. This team will excel at rushing the passer. But the Wildcats are better than they were a year ago, when they upset the Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Worse UA teams have beaten UCLA here.
Final score: Arizona 28, UCLA 24
Record to date: 5-4 (3-3 Pac-12)
GAME 10: COLORADO
When: Saturday, Nov. 11, time TBA
Where: Folsom Field; Boulder, Colo.
TV: TBA
How it could go: It’s really hard to project this Colorado team. By turning over almost the entire roster, first-year coach Deion Sanders is conducting an unprecedented experiment. Will the Buffaloes gel by this point in the season? Will their perceived lack of depth start to reveal itself? This much we know: Aside from a horrific performance in 2021, Arizona has felt at home in Boulder. Before that game, the Wildcats had won four straight at Folsom Field. They’ll start a new streak in this spot — and clinch their first bowl berth in six years.
Final score: Arizona 38, Colorado 31
Record to date: 6-4 (4-3 Pac-12)
GAME 11: UTAH
When: Saturday, Nov. 18, time TBA
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: TBA
How it could go: The Wildcats have lost the penultimate game of the season — the game immediately preceding the Territorial Cup — seven years in a row. The last time they won it? Against No. 10 Utah, in two overtimes, in 2015. Could history repeat itself here? We don’t see it. The Utes might not have quarterback Cameron Rising or tight end Brant Kuithe to start this season. They should be in midseason form by this point. And Kyle Whittingham almost always has his teams playing their best ball down the stretch.
Final score: Utah 31, Arizona 24
Record to date: 6-5 (4-4 Pac-12)
Arizona players celebrate their recovery of a fumbled kick return against Arizona State at Arizona Stadium on Nov. 25, 2022.
GAME 12: ARIZONA STATE
When: Saturday, Nov. 25, time TBA
Where: Mountain America Stadium; Tempe
TV: TBA
How it could go: Kenny Dillingham named freshman Jaden Rashada the Sun Devils’ starting quarterback for the opener. Will he still be the guy by season’s end? We’ll see. If it weren’t for Sanders’ radical remaking of the CU roster, ASU’s rapid rebuild would have garnered more attention; the Devils signed 30 players through the transfer portal, second nationally to the Buffs’ 50. We’ll take Arizona’s stability over ASU’s volatility and give the Wildcats their first win since 2011 in the building formerly known as Sun Devil Stadium.
Final score: Arizona 35, ASU 27
Record to date: 7-5 (5-4 Pac-12)
With two weeks until the season opener, Arizona held its "First Look" scrimmage on Saturday at Arizona Stadium. (Video by Justin Spears / Arizona Daily Star)
