Pac-12 Hotline: Schedule analysis shows UCLA has inside track to conference crown

Four need-to-knows for Week 9 in Pac-12 football:

1. Big Four schedule breakdown

With October coming to a close, four teams stand above the pack. Oregon, UCLA, USC and Utah are the only Pac-12 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this week and, following Utah’s win over Washington State on Thursday, are 12-0 in conference play against the other eight schools.

Within the quartet, the results have been even: Oregon beat UCLA, which beat Utah, which beat USC.

Each team has at least one game remaining against the others, but the stretch-run schedules aren’t exactly even.

Oregon has the toughest path based on the current conference records of its upcoming opponents, while UCLA has the easiest.

Oregon

at Cal (1-3) at Colorado (1-3) vs. Washington (3-2) vs. Utah (3-1) at Oregon State (3-2) Opponent record: 11-11 (50%)

UCLA

vs. Stanford (1-4) at ASU (1-3) vs. Arizona (1-3) vs. USC (4-1) at Cal (1-3) Opponent record: 8-14 (36.3%)

USC

at Arizona (1-3) vs. Cal (1-3) vs. Colorado (1-3) at UCLA (3-1) Opponent record: 6-10 (37.5%)

Utah

vs. Arizona (1-3) vs. Stanford (1-4) at Oregon (4-0) at Colorado (1-3) Opponent record: 7-10 (41.1%)

We would not necessarily peg UCLA as the frontrunner, especially with the head-to-head loss to Oregon.

But with only one remaining game against an opponent with a winning record (USC) — and with that game at home — the Bruins possess the most favorable path to one of the top two seeds and a berth in the conference championship.

2. Ratings gem

The UCLA-Oregon showdown last weekend at 12:30 p.m. on Fox generated 3.34 million viewers, according to the SportsMediaWatch website.

It’s the most-watched Pac-12 conference game of the season and one of four league matchups to draw more than 2.5 million viewers.

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The full list:

UCLA-Oregon: 3.34 million

USC-Stanford: 2.96 million

USC-Utah: 2.74 million

UCLA-Utah: 2.65 million

We do not expect any games this weekend to top the 2.5 million mark, but several November duels could clear the bar, including Oregon-Washington, Oregon-Utah and USC-UCLA.

The most-watched game of the season involving a Pac-12 team came on the first Saturday, when 6.2 million watched Oregon lose to Georgia.

3. Festive weekends

Three teams have Homecoming games, but only one carries more intrigue than a typical Saturday matchup: Arizona hosting USC.

The Wildcats are 60-38-5 in Homecoming games and have won three of their past four. With a big crowd, two weeks to prepare and the emotions that typically accompany USC’s biennial visit, we expect a first-rate performance from Arizona in the spoiler role. Four of the past five matchups in Tucson have been decided by four points or less.

Colorado’s Homecoming should draw a decent crowd, as well — support for the CU program this season has exceeded the quality of the on-field product by a factor of 10. But the heavily-favored visitor, Arizona State, is under .500; an upset wouldn’t alter the conference race.

UCLA also has Homecoming, but the vastness of the Rose Bowl, combined with limited interest in the program, likely will tempter the atmosphere under the lights against Stanford.

4. Notes and nuggets

The Pac-12 has four teams in the Top 20 of the AP poll for the sixth consecutive week. This time last year, it had one (Oregon) in the Top 25.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the No. 3 betting favorite (12-to-1) in the latest Heisman Trophy odds published by VegasInsider.com. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is on the second tier of contenders at 35-to-1.

Arizona State is 0-3 on the road this season heading to Colorado, with trips to Pullman and Tucson remaining. The last time the Sun Devils failed to win a road game in a full season was 2001.

Stanford, a 16.5-point underdog at UCLA, has won 12 of the past 14 matchups against the Bruins. Its last loss to UCLA in the Rose Bowl was 2008.

The Pac-12 has six bowl-eligible teams: Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Washington and Utah. The Utes became No. 6 with a 21-17 win at Washington State on Thursday night.