ST. LOUIS – For all that’s gone wrong for the Buffalo Sabres through 52 games this season, most members of their young core have shown significant signs of progress.
Tage Thompson has 20 goals with 30 games remaining despite playing center in the NHL for the first time; Rasmus Dahlin was selected to the All-Star Game amid a statement fourth season in Buffalo; Dylan Cozens scored at a 20-goal pace in the first half; and the prospects in Rochester have thrived, most notably Jack Quinn. Jeff Skinner has also returned to form, answering a $9 million-per-season question.
While the faces of the franchise’s future are experiencing some success, Victor Olofsson’s struggles have raised questions and speculation about his future in Buffalo. Olofsson, 26, has seven goals and 24 points with a minus-20 rating in 42 games. His 30-game goal drought ended last week when he scored twice, including an empty-netter, in a win over the New York Islanders.
Olofsson seemed like a long-term fixture in Buffalo after his 20-goal rookie season in 2019-20, but he’s a restricted free agent this summer. As DailyFaceoff’s Frank Seravalli noted recently, Olofsson’s career production – 42 goals in 158 games – could earn him a $4.5 million award in arbitration this summer. This led Seravalli to include Olofsson on a list of NHL players who could be traded before the March 21 deadline.
Cap space isn’t an issue for the Sabres. According to CapFriendly.com, Buffalo will have $38.776 million available. The question, though, is if General Manager Kevyn Adams is willing to give Olofsson a raise, especially if the 2014 seventh-round draft pick doesn’t make more of an impact in the season’s second half. Olofsson’s postgame comments after scoring twice against the Islanders indicate that confidence, not health, has been the issue since he returned from an upper-body injury Nov. 21.
“I’ve been overthinking, especially when I get the chances,” Olofsson said. “I kind of take a second or a thought before I shoot the puck instead of just going on my instincts.”
Olofsson showed more signs of development at the start of this season, as he totaled five goals and nine points through the first eight games. He was much more involved at 5-on-5 than previous seasons, leaving the perimeter to create chaos around the net.
The problem began with an upper-body injury that impacted Olofsson’s best weapon: his left-handed shot. He missed nine games with the ailment, but it was clear upon his return in November that his release wasn’t as quick. He was also inaccurate and second-guessing, the latter of which eventually led to his demotion from the top power-play unit.
The uncharacteristic mistakes with the puck led reporters to ask Olofsson in January if the injury was still hindering his performance, but he insisted that was no longer the case. All along, coach Don Granato expressed confidence that Olofsson's luck would change. Granato even scoured game video in search of ways to help Olofsson. When Olofsson showed signs of pressing, Granato pulled him aside with a simple message: stop thinking about scoring.
"He’s gonna start scoring," Granato told reporters. "He’s doing the right things. Just keep doing the right things and you’re gonna get what you want."
Olofsson finally scored on a shot from the right-wing circle, the same spot where he's earned most of his goals. He has been more involved offensively in recent weeks but consistency remains elusive.
Losing the spot on the top power play doesn't help. Half of Olofsson's goals in the NHL have come on the man advantage, including 11 of 20 during the 2019-20 rookie season that earned him Calder Trophy votes. He is on the second power-play unit but is no longer working from the right wall. Peyton Krebs and Kyle Okposo hold those spots. Olofsson isn't making enough of an impact at 5-on-5, either.
Among the 17 Sabres forwards to appear in at least 18 games, Olofsson ranks 11th in shot quality share (41.93%), according to Evolving-Hockey. He is averaging 15 minutes, 58 seconds of ice time per game – he was at more than 18 minutes as a rookie – and he's not a lock for a spot in the top six.
With Quinn and JJ Peterka close to becoming full-time NHLers, and Krebs currently skating at left wing on the second line, it will become increasingly difficult for Olofsson to carve out a prominent role. Would the Sabres be willing to gamble on Olofsson to the tune of $4.5 million next season if he's behind Quinn, Peterka, Krebs, Skinner and Alex Tuch on the depth chart? Brandon Biro is another prospect closing in on the NHL.
Selling low wouldn't make sense. Olofsson is beloved by teammates and works tirelessly. He has all the qualities off the ice that Adams wants in the dressing room, including a desire to remain in Buffalo. And it's documented that most of Olofsson's struggles this season are the product of the injury. The Sabres don't need more draft picks or prospects who are years from contributing. Even if a deal included a proven NHLer, the club doesn't have enough talented goal scorers, particularly on the wing, and it won't be easy to add someone who has a track record of producing.
Although a trade before the deadline seems highly unlikely, Olofsson's name being mentioned as a potential player on the move shows how much has changed since he signed a two-year, $6.1 million contract with Buffalo in October 2020.
"Especially sometimes when you don’t score, it feels like I’m not playing well," said Olofsson. "But sometimes you’ve got to look at video and see that maybe it’s not as bad as you think. I’ve been doing that a lot lately. ...You’ve got to do that sometimes and just maybe take a step away from hockey on a day off and just focus on something else, too. That helps a lot.”
Reunion
The Sabres haven’t played the Blues since Jan. 9, 2020, when St. Louis earned a 5-1 win in Enterprise Center. Of the 18 skaters and one goalie to dress for Buffalo that game, only four could be in the lineup Friday night: Asplund, Okposo, Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju.
The Sabres canceled practice Thursday because of a travel issue, so the media did not receive an update on Jokiharju, who skated only 11:19 against Montreal because of a lower-body injury. Okposo also missed the game because of a non-Covid illness.
Blues fans will see a different version of Thompson, a former St. Louis prospect amid a breakout season. He was drafted in the first round by St. Louis in 2016, 26th overall, and arrived in Buffalo in the Ryan O’Reilly trade. The Sabres (16-28-8) have dropped four straight, while the Blues (30-14-6) sit second in the Central Division and have earned points in five consecutive games, including four regulation wins. Puck drop is 8 p.m. ET.
