Danny Gonzales calls them the “championship downs.”
Third-and-medium. The offense needing anywhere from 3 to 6 yards. The defense determined to get a stop.
Third-down success — or failure — is a major factor in every competitive football game. It could be the deciding factor in the Arizona-Iowa State game on Saturday in Ames — especially when the Cyclones have the ball.
In this week’s “Cats Stats,” we’ll examine that particular matchup: ISU offense vs. UA defense on third down. It’s what football coaches call “good on good.” We might even go so far as to say it’s excellent on excellent.
We’ll start with the basic numbers before drilling deeper.
Iowa State has converted 50% of its third downs. That rate is tied for 24th nationally and ranks fourth in the Big 12.
Arizona has allowed just 22.5% of its opponents’ third downs to be converted. That figure ranks eighth in the country and second in the conference.
Arizona defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales hands out fives to his unit after a stand against Weber State, Sept. 6, 2025, at Arizona Stadium.
As is the case with most teams, Iowa State is harder to stop the fewer yards it needs. On third downs of 2 or fewer yards, the Cyclones have converted at a 78.6% clip (11 of 14). In the “championship” zone — 3-6 yards — they’re at 57.9% (11 of 19). When they need 7 or more yards? Different story.
Iowa State has converted just 3 of 17 third downs — 17.6% — when needing 7-plus yards to get a first down. Gonzales said anytime the opposition needs 7 or more “we should have a huge advantage.” The Cyclones don’t put themselves in that position very often, though.
“They stay in front of the chains,” Gonzales said. “If you get negative plays on them, that’s your best chance.”
We’ve been saying it for years here at “Cats Stats,” and it still holds true: The real key to winning on third down is to win on first and second downs. The average distance Iowa State has needed to convert this year is 5.6 yards — extremely manageable.
Arizona’s defense also has set itself up for success. The average third-down distance for UA opponents is 8 yards. That’s a pass play in almost all circumstances. Any play is easier to defend when you have some idea of what’s coming.
As you would expect, Arizona’s defense has been stingy on third-and-long. Opponents have converted just 16.7% (4 of 24) when needing 7 or more yards.
The Wildcats have been even better on the championship downs. They’ve allowed just one conversion in 10 attempts (10%) when the opposition needs 3-6 yards. They’re buying into what Gonzales is preaching.
When the opponent needs 2 or fewer yards, the UA defense is mortal. The conversion rate in those situations is 66.7% (4 of 6).
Better as they go
Another tenet here at Cats Stats HQ is that numbers don’t lie. It’s the foundation upon which this feature is built.
But one could make the argument that Iowa State is actually better at converting third downs than its overall rate would suggest.
The Cyclones were just 3 of 14 (21.4%) on third down in their opener against Kansas State. They’re 22 of 36 (61.1%) since — including an absurd 9 of 10 against South Dakota on Aug. 30.
Iowa State tailback Abu Sama III (24) runs with the ball against Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, Aug. 23, 2025.
Taking it a step further, Iowa State converted only one of its first nine third downs in that KSU game, which was played in Ireland in wet conditions on a choppy field. It was about as sloppy a game as you’ll see.
Since then, the Cyclones have converted 24 of 41 — a robust 58.5%.
Iowa State eventually was able to figure things out in Dublin, and that’s not unusual for the Cyclones. It’s part of their DNA.
Iowa State’s third-down progression in every game besides South Dakota — which wasn’t a struggle in any way — illustrates what Gonzales said about the Cyclones. They’re an example, in his view, of how you win in the most fundamental sense.
“The team that plays the hardest the longest,” Gonzales said. “That’s what they’re built on.”
Against Kansas State, Iowa State started 1 of 9 on third down and finished 2 of 5.
Against Iowa, ISU started 3 of 8 and finished 5 of 7.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht (3) scrambles out of the pocket to score a touchdown against Arkansas State on Sept. 13, 2025, in Jonesboro, Ark.
Against Arkansas State, the Cyclones started 1 of 5 and finished 4 of 6.
None of that happens by accident.
Becht at his best
The man at the controls has a lot to do with Iowa State’s third-down success.
Veteran quarterback Rocco Becht is as savvy as they come. The redshirt junior is set to make his 32nd career start Saturday — all at Iowa State.
“He is a really good player,” UA coach Brent Brennan said, “and I’ve got a ton of respect for him because he stayed the course.”
Becht doesn’t always stay in the pocket in third-down situations, and that’s what makes him especially dangerous.
Becht has rushed for eight first downs this season. Six have come on third-down plays. The other two have come on fourth-down plays.
Five of his successful third-down runs have required 3 or fewer yards to gain a first down, per CFBStats.com.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws a pass over Iowa defensive back Koen Entringer (4) during the second half of their game Sept. 6, 2025, in Ames, Iowa.
“His ability to run the ball, especially on short-down distances, is uncanny,” Gonzales said.
It’s not new. Becht rushed for a first down on third down 17 times last season; 10 of those were third-and-short situations (3 or fewer yards). The previous year, four of the seven first downs that Becht gained on the ground on third down were third-and-shorts.
Becht isn’t too shabby as a passer on third down either. Although his completion rate is a bit down this year on third down — 53.8% (14 of 26) — Becht has a 4-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Last year it was 7-2. The year before that, 5-2.
Where is Becht vulnerable? You might think third-and-long, and the numbers so far this year back that up. Becht has completed just 4 of 12 passes for 46 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on third downs of 6 or more yards, per ESPN.com. When it’s 11-plus yards, he’s 0 of 3 with a pick.
But that might just be a small-sample-size blip. Over the previous two seasons, Becht completed 62.7% of his passes with a 9-2 TD-INT ratio on third-and-6-plus. On third-and-11-plus, those figures were 58.5% and 4-1.
Championship downs bring out the best in championship players.
