Cats Stats: 5 areas Oklahoma excels — and how Arizona matches up heading into Alamo Bowl

Bowl season nowadays is like a box of chocolates — or, to make this a little more timely, a carton of Pop-Tarts.

Either way, you never know what you’re going to get.

Between the transfer portal, NFL Draft opt-outs and coaching changes, bowl games are a crapshoot. Entering Tuesday’s slate, betting-line underdogs had won outright in 10 of 17 contests.

Even the high-profile Valero Alamo Bowl between No. 14 Arizona and No. 12 Oklahoma on Thursday has an air of mystery to it.

The Wildcats will be without star left tackle Jordan Morgan, who’s prepping for the draft. The Sooners are without starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who’s headed to Oregon, multiple offensive linemen and a handful of other contributors.

Will this Sooners team remotely resemble the one that went 10-2 during the regular season and handed national semifinalist Texas its lone loss? We’ll see.

For now, all we have to go on are numbers. In this pre-Alamo Bowl edition of “Cats Stats,” we’ll look at five areas where Oklahoma has performed well this season — and how Arizona matches up in those categories.

Offense, in general

Any way you slice it, the 2023 Sooners have been an offensive juggernaut — at least with Gabriel behind center.

Oklahoma ranks third nationally in scoring (43.2 points per game), fifth in total offense (502.4 yards per game) and 12th in yards per play (6.74). Entering bowl season, the Sooners were the only team in the country to score 50-plus points five times.

As you know, Arizona has improved immensely on defense this season. In 2022, the Wildcats ranked 125th or 126th in scoring defense, total defense and yards allowed per play. This year, they’re in the top 45 in all three — including 27th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg).

Over the course of its six-game winning streak, Arizona has held four opponents below their scoring average. The six teams averaged 18.7 points vs. the Wildcats, 26.8 overall.

Passing offense/efficiency

With Gabriel taking the vast majority of the snaps, Oklahoma ranks sixth in passing offense (321.8 ypg), fifth in yards per pass attempt (9.5) and fourth in efficiency rating (172.06).

With Gabriel having moved on, the Sooners will turn to freshman Jackson Arnold at quarterback. Arnold, a five-star recruit, played well when given the chance, albeit in non-pressure situations. Arnold completed 18 of 24 passes (75%) for 202 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in six relief appearances. He also rushed for 78 yards and a score.

Few teams have produced more explosive passing plays than the Sooners, who rank in the top 10 nationally in plays of 20-plus, 30-plus, 40-plus and 50-plus yards.

One of Arizona defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen’s main tenets is minimizing big plays, and the Wildcats have done that for the most part. They rank in the top 25 nationally in allowing the fewest pass plays of 30- and 40-plus yards.

Oklahoma is transitioning to a new offensive coordinator, with Seth Littrell replacing Jeff Lebby. Nansen expects the OU offense, at least structurally, to look about the same.

Interceptions, both ways

Oklahoma ranks in the top 15 nationally in fewest interceptions thrown (six, tied for 15th) and most pickoffs of opposing QBs (19, second).

If there’s one area where Arizona’s defense has lagged, it’s takeaways. The Wildcats are tied for 107th in turnovers gained with 13 and tied for 118th in interceptions with six. Arizona did have five takeaways, including four picks, in its final two regular-season games.

Sooners junior safety Billy Bowman Jr. is tied for second in the country with six interceptions and leads the nation with three pick-sixes.

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Arizona’s Noah Fifita has done a superb job of protecting the ball since taking over for Jayden de Laura as the starting quarterback. Fifita has thrown just five interceptions in eight starts and never more than one in a game. He’s tied for 18th nationally with a turnover-worthy-play rate of just 2.4%, per Pro Football Focus (minimum 304 dropbacks).

Third-down offense/defense

Oklahoma has been one of the best teams in the country on both sides on football’s “money down.”

The Sooners rank ninth nationally in third-down offense (49.4%) and 13th in third-down defense (30.4%).

When Arizona’s offense faces a third down, it’ll be strength on strength. The Wildcats are seventh in the nation in third-down conversion rate at 49.7%.

Since Fifita became the starting quarterback in Week 5, Arizona has converted 53.8% of its third downs. He has a higher completion rate (75.9%) on third down than any other down.

The Wildcats have been a bit vulnerable when it comes to thwarting teams on third down. They rank 92nd nationally in that department at 41%.

But if you don’t get a first down, Arizona probably will stop you. The Wildcats rank sixth nationally in fourth-down defense, allowing just six conversions in 19 attempts (31.6%).

Tackles for loss

The OU defense likes to play on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

The Sooners are tied for 13th nationally with 7.33 tackles for loss per game. Their leader is junior linebacker Danny Stutsman, who has 16 TFLs and joined Bowman on the All-Big 12 first team.

Oddly, only 19 of Oklahoma’s 88 TFLs are sacks. The Sooners are tied for 113th in sacks per game (1.58).

Arizona generally hasn’t allowed too much defensive disruption; the Wildcats are tied for 62nd nationally in TFLs allowed per game (5.50) and tied for 50th in sacks allowed per game (1.75). The latter remained the same after the QB switch.

But all of that occurred with Morgan at left tackle. It remains to be seen how much his absence will impact the offense.

Morgan is an elite pass protector, a very good run blocker and a potential first-round draft pick. It appears that fourth-year sophomore Joseph Borjon is in line to replace him; that would cause the least disruption to the front five.

However they line up, the Wildcats will miss Morgan. Will they miss him as much as Oklahoma will Gabriel? Probably not. But it’s close.