Regardless of what happens next week in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Arizona Wildcats can at least partly blame Las Vegas for a blemish on their Selection Sunday résumé.
UA has only the No. 123-ranked nonconference strength of schedule, according to Kenpom.com, a number dragged down because of their participation in the two-game Las Vegas Invitational bracket over Thanksgiving.
The tournament also included two home games assigned by the event’s committee. Their opponents in those games: Sacred Heart, which now has the nation’s No. 300 RPI, and Northern Colorado, ranked 308th.
“We won’t play in that again,” UA coach Sean Miller said, “for that reason.”
Multi-team events are tempting for teams to participate in because most of them allow teams to play four games for the “price” of three against the NCAA scheduling maximum. But as in all aspects of nonconference scheduling, it’s a science, and Miller said avoiding high RPI teams is key.
That point was driven home to all Pac-12 coaches when CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm met with them after last season, Miller said. They were all told the intricacies of how their schedule strengths affect them, and each other, since each Pac-12 team plays 19 to 22 games against conference teams.
It was about “the importance of nonconference schedule, to be a united group and have a real method to what we all do,” Miller said. There are “consequences of nonconference scheduling that can affect potential bids. The quality wins you bring to the table, avoiding the RPI 300-plus teams and the unbalanced (Pac-12) schedule, how that can affect tournament seeding.”
The UA couldn’t control its Pac-12 schedule, which didn’t give them a second crack at Oregon (No. 4 RPI) in regular-season play, and it also didn’t have control over the Las Vegas Invitational games once it accepted an invitation to play in the event.
The Wildcats knew they would be playing Butler or Vanderbilt in Las Vegas, but didn’t know exactly which mid- or low-majors they’d face in the non-bracketed games in McKale Center until after they accepted an invite to the bracket.
UA has upgraded next season to the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, which will give it three games against seven other teams that have an average RPI of 84 as of now. An additional Atlantis game against Maryland-Baltimore County (169) was added for McKale Center to get to the total of four allowable games for that event.
Overall on UA’s nonconference 2017-18 schedule, the only plus-200-RPI teams are Long Beach State (217), UNLV (236) and NAU (338).
Northern Arizona often drags down UA’s RPI, but Arizona plays the Lumberjacks every year or two because of both in-state ties and coach Jack Murphy’s relationship to the program. The Lumberjacks may be better next season because many key players return.
UA also has one more opening remaining on its 2017-18 nonconference schedule, during the weekend of Dec. 9-10, according to UA basketball operations director Ryan Reynolds.
UA could toughen up its schedule with that game or tone it down, depending on what Miller finds most appropriate.
“All options are open right now,” Miller said. “Some of it might have to do with who returns from this year’s team and how we finalize our recruiting class, how that looks. Balance is everything. You want to make sure you have confidence going into your conference season and yet, at the same time, that you have a competitive nonconference schedule.”
Miller said he wished the Wildcats had more games in McKale this season, but Reynolds says the proliferation of the multi-team and neutral-site games has made it difficult to attract high major teams into McKale Center for home-and-home series.
UA also was burned somewhat by Missouri. The Wildcats and Tigers agreed to a deal in 2012, but didn’t actually play until 2015-16 and this season. Missouri (7-21) now has an RPI of 252.
But the Wildcats will welcome Connecticut (106) into McKale next season while playing road games at New Mexico (85) and UNLV (236). They’ll also face Texas A&M (86) in Phoenix.
Overall, UA’s nonconference strength of schedule next season should be at least comparable to this season.
UA nonconference opponents this season had an average RPI of 134, while their opponents next season average 144, factoring in the three Bahamas games each at 84, the average RPI of the seven other teams headed to Nassau (the exact bracket has not yet been released).
UA’s opponent RPI average in 2017-18 could improve further if UA adds a strong opponent on Dec. 9-10.
As a bonus, the Wildcats won’t have to travel nearly as much to play all those games. While they went to Honolulu, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Missouri and Houston during nonconference play this season, they will only go to the Bahamas, Las Vegas and Albuquerque next season; Reynolds says the open date will likely be a home game.
