With days until the Buffalo Bills open a season of high expectations, The Buffalo News' Bills writers weigh in on some key issues.
The Bills are listed with an over/under on wins at 10.5. Are you going under or over? Why?
Jay Skurski: Over. Easily. The roster is loaded. The coaching staff has enjoyed remarkable continuity. The quarterback who finished second in the MVP race last year looks poised to take another step forward. The star wide receiver is in the prime of his career. Their AFC East opponents are starting two rookies at quarterback and another (Miami's Tua Tagovailoa) who has plenty to prove in his second season. The time is now.
Mark Gaughan: Over. I’m going 12-5, but I think 11-6 would be a very good season. A lot of things had to go right for the Bills to go 13-3, including going unbeaten in the division. I’ll be surprised if the Bills sweep New England. I think the Patriots will win at least 10, and I don’t think the Bills will have the division clinched when they go to Foxborough on Dec. 26.
Katherine Fitzgerald: Over. Thirteen wins is hard to match, even with an additional game, but I think the Bills still hit the over. Sure, opponents will be more amped for these games, but the Bills' offense should get rolling early, and the offseason has set up this defense nicely. It’s a complete team with plenty of experience to build on.
What is the biggest challenge the Bills face?
Jay: The Chiefs, who have to be in the Bills’ heads at this point. Kansas City outclassed Buffalo in both meetings last season. Until Bills coach Sean McDermott shows he can outscheme his mentor, Chiefs coach Andy Reid, Kansas City will be used as the measuring-stick opponent. There’s a good reason the Bills put such an emphasis on improving their pass rush this offseason – that’s what Tampa Bay used to beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
Mark: Is the pass rush good enough against elite offenses? Is the run defense stout enough? I think those are still questions, even with Star Lotulelei back, and we’ll get an early answer vs. Pittsburgh. Are the guards good enough against top-flight defensive tackles? Is the No. 2 cornerback good enough against elite offenses? Or will the Bills need to invest in a cornerback early in the draft next year to go along with Tre’Davious White?
Katherine: Maintaining depth late in the season. That’s a challenge for any team, but the Bills’ stretch in late November and early December of Saints-Patriots-Buccaneers in 18 days is notable. The 17-game regular season is sure to be taxing on players, and depth can also very much be affected by Covid-19 and Covid-19 protocols. The Bills will want all their options for the postseason push.
Have the Bills boosted their roster enough to knock off Kansas City?
Jay: The Chiefs would be favored if the two teams played tomorrow, for good reason. The Bills’ defense overall, and pass rush in particular, has to show it’s a lot more formidable than it was last year. Greg Rousseau, the team’s first-round pick, has looked good … but it was the preseason. Based on their offseason alone, it would be a stretch to say the Bills have done enough to move past the Chiefs.
Mark: I think it comes down to pass rush. Have the Bills improved enough? If the Bills have two players with nine or more sacks at the end of the regular season, I like their chances. The Bills got 20.5 sacks last year from the defensive line. Tampa Bay got 31.5. (I realize pressure is more important than sacks.) I think the Bills’ young pass rushers will get them over the hump. But not this year.
Katherine: I think knock off sounds a little too permanent here. The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs aren’t going away anytime soon. The Bills get a chance in early October to try to avenge their losses, but I think this will be a fun back-and-forth between the two teams for the next stretch.
Which Bills player will be the biggest surprise?
Jay: Mario Addison. The veteran defensive end was miscast last year in more of an every-down role than he was comfortable with. Addison also was brutally honest in saying he wasn’t in the right mental space after his brother was tragically murdered in 2019. He said at the start of camp he’s feeling good – physically and mentally – and a return to more of a pass-rushing role should be beneficial for Addison and the team.
Mark: I still think we have to temper expectations for first-round defensive end Greg Rousseau. Just one season of college football, sat out a full year, 21 years old. I’m surprised how good he looked in training camp and preseason. If Rousseau winds up being the answer to this question, that will be great news for the Bills. I’ll hang my hat one more year on Dawson Knox, who I don’t think will be a fashionable answer to this question. Great kid. Let’s see him stay healthy and catch seven TD passes.
Katherine: Can a first-round pick be a surprise? I’m interested to see what Rousseau does in his jump the NFL. The Bills took him at 30th overall for a reason, but having opted out of the 2020 season at Miami, it’s been a bit since he’s played meaningful football. Some early bumps are likely, but his size and ability can make a huge impact.
