Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky reaches for a golf analogy to describe the challenge facing Josh Allen in 2021.
“Golf is one of my favorite games, and the hardest thing to do in golf is follow a birdie with a birdie,” said Orlovsky, an ESPN analyst. “I want Josh Allen to follow a birdie with a birdie. That’s my realistic expectation. I want to see him have another dominant season. I want to see him have another MVP-worthy campaign. They kept their offensive coordinator, their offensive line and their skill position guys. So that should be something that I don’t even think is unrealistic. I believe that’s fair to expect.”
Former NFL quarterback Tony Romo thinks basketball when assessing what’s ahead for Allen.
“I relate this to Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan,” the CBS analyst and former Dallas Cowboy said, referring to the San Antonio Spurs’ championship coach and center. “Josh has a great coaching staff. Sean McDermott is incredible. Brian Daboll is incredible. If you get one of the top players in the league, like Duncan, who was in the top five in the season every year he played, I think that’s what you’re seeing that and you’re going to see that with Josh.”
High praise is everywhere for Allen after what he and the Buffalo Bills’ offense accomplished last season.
The Bills ranked No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 31.3 points a game and No. 3 in passing yards, at 288 a game.
Allen accounted for 45 touchdowns passing and rushing, the second most in the league behind the 51 of NFL Most Valuable Player Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay.
The Bills became only the second NFL team ever to produce at least 20 first downs in all 16 games, joining the 2012 New England Patriots.
“Honestly, this is the most prolific, powerful, dynamic, seasoned offensive group that we’ve seen since the Jim Kelly days,” said former pro quarterback Jim Kubiak, director of the Western New York Quarterback Academy, who has been analyzing Allen's play for The News for three seasons.
Let the good times roll.
“Air Allen” is a marriage of elite talent with an excellent scheme.
The franchise
It would have been easy to imagine Allen getting drafted in 2018 and being placed in a run-first, play-action-heavy, deep-passing offense. That’s what Carolina did when it drafted big-bodied Cam Newton in 2011.
Or a team drafting Allen might have “protected” him by putting him in a run-first, highly schemed Gary Kubiak-style offense, the kind Minnesota runs for Kirk Cousins and Cleveland runs for Baker Mayfield. Excel at outside zone runs. Get the quarterback out of the pocket on bootlegs. Design clearly defined throws on a lot of crossing routes.
But that’s not the background of Daboll, who was part of Tom Brady’s dynamic pass attack in New England.
Daboll had faith that Allen could be a master distributor, reading the full field and slicing up the defense with possession passes.
“You look at what Brian Daboll is doing, and that is a precision passing attack,” said Jim Miller, the former Bears quarterback and SiriusXM NFL Radio host. “To me, the whole playbook is open to him. He can do the deep stuff because he has a hose for an arm. He can do the precision stuff because he took it to heart, worked on his motion and the stroke of his throw. He’s the precision passer now.”
To some degree, the national perspective on Allen is his breakthrough last season came out of nowhere. That’s not the case.
Allen’s completion percentage on throws less than 20 yards downfield rose from 59.7% as a rookie to 66.3% in his second year. Last year, it was his deep passing that greatly improved, going from 29th in the league on throws of 20-plus yards in 2019 (30.9%) to sixth (47.2%), according to Pro Football Focus.
Overall last season, Allen’s completion percentage (69.2%) ranked fourth in the NFL.
“I agree 100%, he has gotten better each and every year,” said Ken Dorsey, the Bills' quarterbacks coach. “You see it with all the great ones throughout time, it’s a constant drive to get better and a constant drive to win. The only way to do that is to work hard and continue to be open to hard coaching when you do make a mistake. Josh is fantastic with that.”
Obviously, improved skill at wide receiver has allowed Allen’s arm talent to blossom. The Bills had the most completions in the NFL to wide receivers last year, headed by Stefon Diggs’ NFL-best 127.
Allen’s ability to attack all levels of the defense takes full advantage of the receiving talent.
“They haven’t limited Josh, because he has no limitations,” Miller said. “When he came out of Wyoming, everybody talked about the completion percentage. I remember watching him on tape. He could do things no other quarterbacks could do because he’s that physically gifted.
“In their bowl game against Central Michigan, he ran what’s called a 135 play-action,” Miller said, referring to a fake run off left tackle. “So you’re backing out to your left. You’re faking like a ride 35, and he’s got a backside skinny post. It’s probably the most difficult throw you can make as a quarterback. He makes the fake, drops back 5 yards and rifles a backside skinny post for a touchdown. That’s something you don’t see just any quarterback being able to do.”
Allen’s arm talent was on display all training camp this summer.
“The day I was there for practice this training camp, he threw a corner route over Tre’Davious White that was unbelievable,” Miller said. “I interviewed Tre’Davious after practice and he said, ‘Dude, that guy looked me off to the right and then he carried the receiver all the way to the back corner and put it in the top spot above the defensive back for a touchdown.’ He’s a precision thrower now. He can carve you up underneath. It’s something special to watch.”
At 6-5 and 240 pounds, Allen also has the ability to “play above the scheme.” That means overcoming a perfect call by the defense or a busted assignment by a teammate.
A prime example last season was the playoff victory against Indianapolis, which executed a great game plan with the No. 5-ranked defense in the league but still lost, 27-24. Allen made two amazing throws to Gabriel Davis on scrambles outside the pocket to produce a critical touchdown drive.
“He did so many great things for us in that game to help us win,” Dorsey said. “That’s obviously one of the huge advantages of a guy like Josh – his ability to improvise and create and do things when things break down or do things when defenses have the right call. There’s going to be times where they may have a better call than we do. At the end of the day, it’s our job to either make it right with the read by making a good decision and throwing the ball away. Sometimes that’s the best decision you can make. Or extend the play and get out of the pocket and make something happen with your arm or your feet, which obviously he’s excellent at.”
Helping the quarterback
The Bills used three receivers, one tight end and back – 11 personnel – on 72.8% of the plays last year, according to Buffalo News charts. That ranked sixth in the NFL. The Bills used 10 personnel (four wide receivers and no tight ends) on 13.3%, second in the league to Arizona.
Overall, the Bills spread the field with three or more receivers on a league-high 87% of their plays.
On paper, the receiving corps could be even better this year, because everyone is back except for John Brown. And newcomer Emmanuel Sanders is expected to be a slight upgrade over Brown, who was limited by injuries to nine games last season.
“They trust that those skill position guys can utilize space so well,” Orlovsky said. “Stefon Diggs uses space so well, so give it to him. Cole Beasley uses space so well, give it to him. Gabe Davis uses space so well. Allow those guys space.”
Daboll helps give the passing game more space with play-action run fakes. The Bills led the NFL last season by running play action on 36% of pass plays, according to Football Outsiders.
The Bills also are one of the most pass-first teams in the NFL.
On first down in the first three quarters of games last year, the Bills passed a league-high 63.6%, according to Sharp Football. On all downs in the first three quarters, the Bills were fourth in pass percentage, at 63.9%. (We don’t count the fourth quarter, because good teams often are running to protect a lead and run the clock late in games.)
“Obviously, we try to tailor everything we do to Josh,” Daboll has said repeatedly. “Try to make the quarterback’s job easier.”
“First down, defenses aren’t scheming to stop the pass, so why not throw it every single first down?” Kubiak said. “It’s much harder to throw against nickel and dime defenses on third-and-8 than it is on first-and-10.”
Some of the versatility in the Bills’ attack comes from the ability of receivers with different skill sets to play different positions.
“Under Daboll, the Bills’ offense has continued to build and diversify its group of wide receivers, making it all but impossible for defenses to hone in to limit any one player,” Kubiak said. “This balance and interchangeability gives Daboll the freedom to adjust formations and personnel without sacrificing production. This gives the Bills multiple offensive option route weapons, at any time, anywhere on the field.”
Daboll further stresses the defense – and limits its blitzing options – by running empty sets about 10% of the time. With five receivers split out wide, most teams want one safety deep, which means Allen knows there probably is only five or fewer men rushing.
“You’re trying to always attack the defense’s weakness, but you have a blueprint,” Romo said. “You have something you’re always going back to that you know we can rely on this. I think a lot of coaches sometimes just throw darts at the board. They say this week we’re going to do this or this.
“What you want to do is have a scheme and say. 'We live in this world,'” Romo said. “Then we’re going to live a little more over here in this 20% this week because this defense does this. That’s instead of saying, 'OK, we’ve got these brand-new plays this week.' No. This is our scheme. We’re just going to live more over here this week because this defense does this. I think Brian does a really good job of that. I think you’re seeing the result of really talented people coming together.”
“It never ceases to amaze me how unorthodox Daboll is,” Kubiak said. “Take last week’s game against Green Bay. Who comes into a preseason game with a $258 million quarterback and throws the ball every single time in the first quarter? I think it’s spectacular.”
Defending Air Allen
One challenge Allen is sure to face this season is the testing of his patience.
A basic tenet of defending any potent offense: Don’t give up the big play.
Defenses must respect Allen’s big arm.
“We saw this a little bit last year, and I think we’re going to see it again,” Orlovsky says. “We’re going to dare them to play boring football. We’re going to dare Josh to just play boring, not jaw-dropping, not sexy football. That’s hard for guys that are ridiculously talented because anybody can do that.”
Orlovsky served as a backup to former first overall pick Matthew Stafford in Detroit from 2014 to 2016.
“I remember being with Matthew Stafford and having this conversation,” he said. “I asked him, ‘Hey Dude, why won’t you just take that checkdown? I know we’ve got four verticals on. But they’re playing soft Cover 2 and everybody’s dropping back. Why won’t you just take the checkdown? He looked at me and said, ‘Because you can make that throw.’”
“It was an eye-opening thing because guys who are that talented, they’ve done it, they know that they can and they always want to. I think defenses are just going to play soft – almost like a Bill Belichick style of defense. Make him go 10 plays over the course of that series. Over the course of four quarters, can you do five 10-play drives of really disciplined, boring football?”
Allen showed he can take what the defense gives him last year. The Bills had 28 touchdown drives last season of eight or more plays, including four against New England in a Week 16 victory.
This is a big reason why a more efficient running game is important. The Bills had the fourth highest percentage of runs (41%) last season against “light boxes,” meaning six or fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage. If defenses are going to sit back in coverage, the Bills must make them pay on the ground.
“That would be the way that I’d play him,” Orlovsky said. “Go hand the ball off. I believe teams are going to dare Josh to do that.”
“At the end of the day for us it’s all about making good decisions,” Dorsey said of Allen’s ability to play with patience. “Whatever the play call based on the defense you’re seeing. It’s about making good decisions and playing the game like that. If we make good decisions, a lot of times then good things will happen and things will fall into place.”
The other key to defending a great quarterback: speed him up. That means getting pressure, but it doesn’t mean all-out blitzing. That’s usually too dangerous against a top QB.
Allen has improved dramatically against the blitz. Against pass rushes of five or more men in 2019, Allen completed 53.5% for 6.0 yards per attempt with six TDs and one interception (counting playoffs), according to Buffalo News charts. In 2020 against the blitz, he completed 66.5% for 8.3 yards per attempt with 16 TDs and two INTs.
The team that did the best job of speeding up Allen was Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Allen did not show enough patience in that game.
“I felt, especially early on in that game, that he was trying to prove how good he is,” Orlovsky said of Allen. “He played in a hurry and he was almost trying to prove that fact. That’s how he got himself into a little bit of trouble. He didn’t trust the things he was seeing.”
"There's a lot of mistakes looking back at that last game that we could have cleaned up, I could have cleaned up," Allen said. "And it’s something that I've been, like I said, chomping at the bit to get back on the field. So I think everybody in this locker room has the same type of mentality."
Dorsey said every blitz Allen sees goes in the memory banks, and his mental library of defensive looks will get better every year.
“The more you play as a player of his caliber, the more you know what to do,” Dorsey said. “You are reacting because it’s becoming second nature based off of looks and your knowledge of your system. A goal obviously for a quarterback every year is to keep improving and keep building that library of knowledge from the different teams you’re facing. You’re going to see some different coordinators and teams. The more you see defenses and different schemes, the quicker you react on the field.”
“I think all of those things played a major factor in executing against pressure. It’s one of those things where the defense has two objectives – affecting the quarterback and creating confusion. If you’re on top of it making good decisions, then you can operate and find ways to take advantage of it.”
Allen faced a blitz by a defensive back more than any QB in the league last year – 21%, according to Football Outsiders. Because the Bills play so much spread offense, it’s no surprise defenses would blitz one of the slot cornerbacks off the edge. It’s something the Bills will continue to frequently see.
Great expectations
Dorsey knows that success in the NFL is hard-earned. There are going to be bumps in the road for Allen and the Bills this year, just like every season.
“No quarterback is going to go out and be perfect,” he said. “It’s too hard of a game, defenses are too good and you’re playing some of the best athletes in the world. You’re going to make mistakes. You’re going to have good games. You’re going to have bad games. You’re going to have games in between. It’s constantly learning from those things that I think really helps guys excel.”
"We as a team know that what we did last year is not going to carry over to this year," Allen said.
Nevertheless, expectations are very high.
“I think the coaching staff with McDermott and Josh together, and Brian, they’re going to be hard to beat year in and year out because they’re good in coaching, they’re good in scheme and they’re good with talent at that position,” Romo said. “It’s why the Spurs were so good for a long time, and I think the Bills are going to be just like them.”
“I want another repeat performance,” Orlovsky said. “I think they should be in the AFC title game. I do believe it would be a disappointment if they’re not.”
