Welcome to another edition of the Bills Mailbag. Let’s jump right into your questions.
Richard S. asks: Aside from Josh Allen on offense and Tre White on defense, who are the most irreplaceable Bills?
Jay: On offense, it’s Stefon Diggs. A true No. 1 receiver like that is exceptionally difficult to find. Diggs finished No. 11 on NFL Network’s list of top 100 players, and that feels a bit low. He’s a great, great player. On defense, it’s tougher. Given what he does in terms of calling the defense and playing all three downs, middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is probably the hardest to replace.
Tony Valvo asks: Which addition to the 2021 team do you think will have the biggest impact?
Jay: With so many returning starters, there aren’t many choices. On offense, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is a worthy candidate. On defense, the first two draft picks – defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham – would be decent choices. I’ll go with Sanders, who figures to see more playing time than either of the rookies with the expectation being that the Bills run plenty of four wide-receiver sets.
Sam Ruggiero asks: Welcome back, Jay! The Bills and Josh Allen are a passing team for sure, but did Devin Singletary, Zack Moss and Matt Breida show us enough in preseason to game plan more running plays?
Chris Mazella asks: How big of a step does Devin Singletary take this year? Or even the running game as a whole? Also, do any of the three backs (Singletary, Moss, Breida) rush for more than 700 yards individually?
Jay: Let’s start with Singletary. He drew some solid praise from McDermott on Thursday. “He looks, I don't know if you want to say in better shape, but he looks like he really worked this offseason,” the coach said. “Not that he didn't work last offseason, I know he did. He's just cut that way. And he's got burst to him this year and when he's touched the ball, he's made things happen. Then his pass protection has been on point, as well. So he's caught the ball well out of the backfield, so he looks like he's in a good spot and ready to go.”
Moss also has done well when he’s been on the field. He came back quickly from a hamstring injury, which was a good sign, because staying healthy was an issue last year for him as a rookie. As for Breida, his speed is as advertised, but I struggle to figure out how the Bills will keep him active on game days. If Buffalo keeps eight offensive linemen active, the team can dress 48 players. If nobody is called up, my guess for the inactives in Week 1 would be Breida, Tommy Doyle, Tyrel Dodson, Basham and a defensive tackle. Flip a coin between Harrison Phillips and Justin Zimmer.
To Chris’ last question, yes, one of the three backs will top 700 yards – especially considering the regular season has been stretched to 17 games. While the running game was encouraging in preseason, I’m not sure I would say it will inspire offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to call more for the ground game. Let’s face it: The Bills paid Allen potentially a quarter of a billion dollars. They didn’t do that to have him turn around and hand off the ball. Expect “Air Allen” to continue.
Michael Lenhard asks: With Jake Fromm and Davis Webb on the practice squad and the Delta variant wreaking havoc, will the Bills use a philosophy like last year and separate a quarterback? If so, will it be Fromm again and why?
Jay: Brandon Beane was asked that this week and said that is currently not the plan. “We don't plan to do that right now with the way the rules are,” he said. “We feel confident that (Allen’s) not going to get ruled out for contact tracing or anything like that. Never say never. It’s ever evolving with this virus, but I don't think that would be our plan to start the season.”
Louis65 asks: Why only two tight ends?
bk asks: The Jacob Hollister release was puzzling to me. Is it possible that he was unvaccinated?
Jay: Because they have a third player – fullback Reggie Gilliam – who can move there in a pinch, and the offense favors going with more wide receivers than tight ends. It’s hard to disagree with that logic. Who would you rather want on the field – Gabriel Davis or Tommy Sweeney? That’s not meant to be an insult to Sweeney, but few would argue Davis is the more explosive player. There are situations in which multiple tight ends make sense, but those are special packages. For the most part, loading up on receivers makes the Bills a more explosive offense.
As for Hollister’s vaccination status, I wouldn’t feel comfortable speculating on that. It’s possible, but Beane explained it more as a numbers game, which makes sense when considering the above.
Kevin Theel asks: Which position group are you most concerned about?
Jay: Easily cornerback. The Bills kept only five. Three – Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson – have been battling injuries. Experienced depth, particularly on the outside, is basically nonexistent. The Bills will need to stay healthy, or else cornerback could be a really troublesome spot.
Ed Helinski: Good, bad or ridiculous, what surprised you about the Bills deciding and getting to their roster?
Jay: There really weren’t any big surprises. I’ll toot my own horn and say I got 51 of the 53 players correct on my final 53-man projection. Hollister was the one most everyone thought would make it. I missed on him. I also didn’t have Dodson making the team.
Paul Catalano asks: What is Jay’s W-L projection for this season and how far are you thinking this team goes?
Jay: Cheap plug: Check out Wednesday’s Buffalo News for our complete season preview, which will include the above. Spoiler alert: I’ve got the Bills matching last year’s win total … and advancing just as far in the playoffs.
Vancouver Bills Backers asks: A. Who leads the team in sacks this season? B. You were on Vancouver radio this week talking Bills, why didn't you give us a heads-up?
Jay: Let me start with B – my bad. I’ll be sure to promote my western Canada radio hits a little more in the future. As for A, I’m going outside the box. With a specialized pass-rush role, I’m going to pick Mario Addison as the team’s leader in sacks. Given how much the Bills will rotate on the defensive line, it will be a challenge for any player to reach double digits in sacks, but I’ll say Addison leads with 9.5.
Rick McGuire asks: Has there been an update as to what the percentage of Bills vaccinated players is now since the current roster moves?
Jay: The expectation is the Bills are hovering around 80%, which is the last update Beane gave when the team placed wide receivers Gabe Davis and Cole Beasley and defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Vernon Butler Jr. on the reserve/Covid-19 list as close contacts of a trainer who tested positive. Unless there was a big push to get players vaccinated since then, it’s hard to imagine that number improving much. We know those four players, as well as A.J. Klein and Matt Milano are not fully vaccinated, since they were also sent home as a precautionary measure. Wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie received his first shot of the Pfizer vaccine, meaning he’s not fully vaccinated yet, either. Those seven players make up 13% of the 53-man roster, meaning if every other player was vaccinated, the Bills would be at 87%. We can safely assume that’s not the case. It would not surprise me if the Bills were at slightly less than the 80% mark. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the team had the lowest vaccination rate in the NFL.
The big game asks: We know A.J. Epenesa is the Bills’ emergency long snapper. Who is the emergency quarterback?
Jay: Beasley has experience playing quarterback in high school. So, too, does Hyde, although I’d be surprised if the Bills asked a defensive player to handle the job. Either way, if Allen and Mitchell Trubisky were to get hurt in a game, expect a lot of running plays.
Pat Reale asks: Has any team contacted the Bills regarding Mitch Trubisky? Would they trade him at this point for a first, or is he too valuable as insurance this year?
Jay: There has been nothing to suggest any team has called the Bills about Trubisky with an offer like that – which admittedly would be tough for the Bills to pass up. It’s hard to see an offer like that coming, though. The Patriots just released Cam Newton. Would any team really think Trubisky is so much better than Newton they’d be willing to trade a first-round pick for him? That’s hard to see. This idea of trading Trubisky has been raised plenty of times. It doesn’t make sense, though. The team signed him to have a trusted backup quarterback during a season with championship aspirations. Could things change if there were a team that suffered a major injury at quarterback early in the season? Anything is possible, but for now, the likeliest outcome is Trubisky plays out the season in Buffalo.
GaryLo asks: Any idea what the Bills’ defense will do differently this year to be able to cover tight ends (Travis Kelce)?
Jay: Hoping and praying comes to mind. The reality is, the Bills weren’t the only defense that had no answers for Kelce. The Chiefs’ tight end set the all-time single-season record for receiving yards by a player at his position with 1,416 in 2020. There is no easy answer to this question for the Bills. The same players – Edmunds, fellow linebacker Matt Milano and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde – will be tasked with defending Kelce. The hope for the Bills is that an improved pass rush will get more heat on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, giving him less time to find Kelce.
Bill N. asks: How can this defense think they can stop a physical run game? I just don’t see a true run stuffer in there. The Pats, with violent Damlen Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, will flat-out bruise them. You buying those defensive tackles?
Jay: Lotulelei's return should help the run defense. Lotulelei is never going to make a big statistical contribution, but his job is to free up tacklers such as Edmunds and Milano to make more plays. Phillips had a strong training camp, so perhaps he can help the run defense, as well. The concern about the run defense is a fair one, but it’s not an issue that should keep fans up at night. If Buffalo’s offense is as explosive as it looks like it can be, opponents might not be able to run the ball at will because they’re trailing. The run defense can get by with being average.
LDsports asks: What kind of chance do the Pittsburgh Steelers have against the Bills one week from now? Does Big Ben have enough arm left to compete with the high-powered Bills offense?
Jay: Ben Roethlisberger is a future Hall of Famer and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is one of the best in the NFL. That said, the Bills are solid favorites in my mind, for good reason. Pittsburgh used some smoke and mirrors to start last season as hot as it did, winning 11 in a row. The Steelers were exposed late in the year. They lost four of their last five, including a loss to Buffalo, and then were dumped in the playoffs by the Browns. Roethlisberger, in particular, started to look old. In what promises to be a raucous atmosphere, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Bills win decisively in Week 1.
Chris Luce asks: Are we living in a simulation?
Jay: Is this the new, “Is a hot dog a sandwich” for 2021?
Louis Stromberg asks: Power rankings are back, hope you’re ready! With 10 days to go until the home opener as I write this, please power rank the following tens: The Ten Commandments, Lieutenant Dan, Tennessee, Kirsten Dunst, Tenacious D. Thanks Jay and Go Bills.
Jay: 5. Kirsten Dunst. By now, you should know I’m not a movie guy. 4. Tennessee. Nashville’s a good time, but the rest of the state scares me. 3. Tenacious D. 2. Lieutenant Dan. OK, so I have seen Forrest Gump. You’re a monster if you don’t like that movie. 1. The Ten Commandments. St. Francis might revoke my diploma if this isn’t No. 1. Thanks for all the questions this week. As a reminder, they can be submitted via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or to my Twitter, @JaySkurski.
