Breaking down Arizona’s game at No. 14 BYU, other happenings in the Big 12 | Michael Lev

“Lev it on the Field” is back for Game 6. It’s the Star’s unique look at Arizona’s upcoming football matchup and other happenings around the Big 12 through the eyes of UA beat reporter-turned-columnist Michael Lev. Away we go ...

During the depressing downtime between football games, analysts far smarter than I post graphs that illustrate how good (or bad) teams actually are.

At least that’s what I think they’re doing. I don’t understand most of them.

Still, I search for the “Block A” logo to see if Arizona stands out in any way. Through five games, the Wildcats generally haven’t. The Block A mainly lands amid a jumble of others — sometimes to the point that you can barely make it out.

I might not fully grasp advanced analytics, but I know a metaphor when I see one.

Arizona is a middle-of-the-pack team at the moment.

Just when it seemed the Wildcats had momentum after upsetting Utah, they fumbled it away in a home loss to Texas Tech.

Six teams were tied for sixth place in the Big 12 with 1-1 conference records entering Friday night; Arizona was one of them.

The Wildcats appear to be ascending on defense — but that’s offset by an offense that’s stuck in neutral.

Alternating wins and losses gets you to — gasp! — the Gasparilla Bowl. That would have been acceptable amid Arizona’s five-year bowl-less streak and 20-game losing streak. After last year’s 10-3 breakthrough, capped by a win in the still-prestigious Alamo Bowl, it'd be a major disappointment.

A loss at No. 14 BYU on Saturday afternoon would drop the Wildcats to 3-3 — which, it must be noted, is exactly where they stood at the halfway mark of 2023. Heck, the Cats could upset the Cougars, in which case Arizona would be ahead of last year’s pace.

It doesn’t feel the same, though — at least not at this point in the plot.

Take that for data!

Entering Friday night, BYU had the second-best point differential in the Big 12 at plus-86.

The Cougars have played a respectable schedule, including road games against SMU (which is now ranked) and Baylor. They rank No. 1 in ESPN’s “Strength of Record” metric, which is defined as the “chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.”

Yet the oddsmakers in Vegas — the smartest people of all — don’t seem to hold BYU in the same regard.

Arizona opened as a one-point favorite ahead of Saturday’s matchup. The line has since moved the other way and sits at BYU minus-3 as of this writing.

Still, that’s not what you’d expect when the home team is 5-0 and ranked 14th in the AP poll while the visitors are 3-2 and struggling to find an identity.

Why isn’t BYU getting the love it deserves?

It could be that its win over Kansas State was somewhat fluky, featuring a spate of KSU turnovers and a punt return touchdown. It could be that BYU nearly blew a 21-point lead in Waco before holding on for a 34-28 victory. It could be that the Cougars rank just 64th nationally in yards per play at 5.94 — significantly lower than Arizona (26th, 6.68).

We’ll find out Saturday if the oddsmakers are right — or if, like Arizona in 2023, they’re underestimating BYU.

(Rincon) Market report

Going up: National TV exposure

Brent Brennan brushed off the presence of FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff” pregame show in Provo and the fact that the Wildcats are in a prime national TV window. It’s not something that should be taken for granted — especially in the wake of the Pac-12 Networks era. Playing on “Big FOX” is a big deal. Having FOX’s No. 1 crew of Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft call your game is a big deal. Being on FOX again next week against Colorado is a big deal. It becomes an even bigger deal — for recruiting in particular — if you win.

Going down: Gundy’s ’boys

Last week we dubbed Kansas (1-4) the most disappointing team in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is threatening to steal the Jayhawks’ crown. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys have lost three straight to open league play, including two games at home, and haven’t looked good doing it. It’s hard to find anything that OSU, which has a bye this week, does well. It’s a stunning turn for a team that was ranked 17th in the preseason and had most of its starters returning.

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A question from my X

“As much as we have to credit Jedd (Fisch) for rebuilding the program, do you believe the biggest thing they didn’t do was develop any HS WRs? (Jacob) Cowing, MLC (Montana Lemonious-Craig) were transfers, (Dorian) Singer a walk-on. What has been lacking in (the) recruiting/development from that position?” — @trburns826 via X/Twitter

Tetairoa McMillan, who’s on track to become Arizona’s career leader in receiving yards in just three seasons, was a high school recruit. But point taken.

The last straight-from-high school wide receiver who had sustained success before T-Mac was probably Stanley Berryhill III — who, like Singer, began his UA career as a walk-on.

Aside from McMillan, homegrown wideouts haven’t developed here since the start of the Fisch era in 2021. It’s been detrimental this season as Arizona has struggled to replace Cowing’s production.

The UA has four receivers committed to the class of 2025, and the position will undergo turnover in the offseason with Lemonious-Craig out of eligibility and McMillan likely headed to the NFL.

I would expect a reversal of the development trend under Brennan, who played wide receiver and spends more time coaching that position than any other.

Threads

West Virginia is debuting its “Coal Rush” black uniforms when it hosts Iowa State on Saturday. They are, in a word, spectacular. Paying homage to the state’s coal miners and their blue-collar ethos, the uniform set features one of the most ingenious details I’ve ever seen: A silvery gradient center stripe on the helmet that mimics the light of a coal miner’s headlamp. The shoulders feature vertical stripes meant to imitate the reflective safety stripes on a miner’s uniform, per UNISWAG. A-plus all around.

What he said ...

“The defense should dictate where the ball goes. We’ve walked a fine line with that between the chemistry and trust that Noah and T-Mac have and ... I think you’re harder to defend if the ball gets distributed properly.” — Brennan

What he meant ...

“I love Noah Fifita like a son. He’s a great kid with a capital ‘G.’ But he needs to play better. And he knows it. He needs to trust the system. He needs to trust his reads. He needs to trust his eyes and instincts. The more we spread the ball around, the better we’ll be — and that includes T-Mac.”

The other side

Jay Drew, via the Deseret News:

BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick took advantage of the Cougars being idle last weekend to celebrate his wife’s birthday, but football and his offense’s need for improvement were never far from his mind.

In particular, Roderick kept thinking about last year, and what happened after the bye week in early October when the Cougars traveled to TCU. The offense struggled mightily, and the Horned Frogs rolled to a 44-11 win in Fort Worth. ...

Any momentum BYU had garnered from the win over Cincinnati two weeks prior was out the window.

“Yeah, we have talked a lot about that. What did we do last year to play so bad after the bye? And we took a look at everything,” Roderick said Wednesday. “I think we made some good corrections. We probably practiced a little too much last year after the bye week. You don’t want to be rusty, but you don’t want to overdo it, either. We think we have found a good balance. We will find out on Saturday if we did it right.”

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

This week’s college football menu is filled with tasty matchups; Kansas State-Colorado under the lights in Boulder will serve as the dessert. The 18th-ranked Wildcats were favored by 4.5 points when we made our picks on The Wildcast podcast; the spread was down to 3.5 Friday afternoon. All the more reason to take KSU. Two more reasons: The Wildcats’ physicality in the run game and their ability to get after Shedeur Sanders. (season record: 4-1)

One last thing

Last week featured an almost unprecedented spate of upsets as four top-10 teams lost (and a fifth, Miami, needed a miraculous comeback to avoid losing).

After Vanderbilt shocked No. 1 Alabama, one of the SEC Network studio analysts said it best: The bad teams aren’t as bad as they used to be, and the great teams aren’t as great.

You can thank the transfer portal and NIL for that.

Contrary to what you might have heard, or thought, the portal and NIL aren’t ruining college football; they’re making the product on the field better by creating more competitive balance.

Now, if you want to know what actually might destroy the sport, it’s realignment and the consolidation of power. That’s another column for another day.