This is the year.
This is the time.
Michael Lev is a senior writer/columnist for the Arizona Daily Star, Tucson.com and The Wildcaster.
This is the team.
We hope.
The 2025-26 Arizona men’s basketball team has all the trappings of a Final Four squad. It has passed every test. It has seized every championship opportunity. It has made it this far without anyone suffering a season-ending injury. Fingers crossed. Knock on wood.
Of all the standout UA teams of recent vintage, none has been better positioned to end a drought that’s inexplicably dragged on for nearly a quarter of a century.
These Wildcats have talent, size, depth, toughness and an indomitable will to win. They have truly earned the No. 1 seed in the West Regional, where they’ll face LIU at 10:35 a.m. Friday in San Diego. After that, it’s Villanova or Utah State.
The Arizona Wildcats clinch the Big 12 regular season title after defeating Iowa State 73-57 at McKale Center on March 2, 2026.
Of course, as you all know all too well, being a No. 1 seed doesn’t guarantee a damn thing.
Arizona has been a 1-seed seven times. The Wildcats reached the Final Four only once in those seven opportunities, in 1988.
Since then? Nothing but heartbreak:
1989: Sweet 16
1998: Elite Eight
2000: Second round
2003: Elite Eight
2014: Elite Eight
2022: Sweet 16
Being a No. 1 seed does improve your odds considerably.
Forty Final Fours have been contested since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. (The NCAA Tournament was canceled in 2020 because of the pandemic.) Sixty-six Final Four participants have been 1-seeds, per the NCAA, or 41.3%.
Over half of the finalists — 41 of 80, 51.3% — have been 1-seeds. Nearly two-thirds of the champions — 26 of 40, 65% — have come from that 1-seed line. That includes seven of the past eight.
Last year, all four Final Four participants were No. 1 seeds. That is not the norm. It hadn’t happened since 2008. And it never happened before that.
The first time three No. 1 seeds made it was 1993. It happened again in '97. No. 4 seed Arizona was the interloper. You know how that movie ended.
Winning ‘the big one’
Tommy Lloyd has felt the pressure and the pain.
His first UA team was a No. 1 seed in 2022. It got manhandled in the Sweet 16 by a Houston squad that everyone — except the selection committee — agreed was improperly placed as a No. 5 seed.
Lloyd knows what it’s like to be a favorite and fall short. He knows how heavy the burden of expectations can be.
“I live this life, and I've chosen this profession, and I know what comes with it,” Lloyd said before the Wildcats departed for the Big 12 Tournament.
Houston guard Jamal Shead celebrates after scoring as Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd looks on during the second half of the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament on March 24, 2022, in San Antonio.
“Obviously we have big dreams and big goals, and I know how narratives get created. ... Ultimately, as a coach, you get to Final Fours, you win championships, you're in a certain club. You don't, then you're the guy who couldn't win the big one.
“That's, to me, really lazy and easy to do. So I really don't pay no mind to it. I want to be a great coach, and, most of all, I want our teams to be successful for the players and for the community. That's my driving force.
“If we fall short ... I'm tough enough to handle it. I love my job enough to get back up and do it again.”
Lloyd has been a revelation since he arrived in Tucson in 2021. No coach in NCAA Division I history has won more games in his first five seasons than Lloyd’s 144.
If that number isn’t at least 148 by season’s end — four wins get you to the Final Four — Lloyd’s reputation will take a hit. He’ll remain “the guy who couldn't win the big one.”
Whatever criticism comes his way in that scenario will be deserved.
Jaden Bradley wasn’t a member of that 2022 squad, although I had to double-check to make sure. The wily vet will be playing in his third NCAA Tournament for Arizona. The first two ended in Sweet 16s. One was an expected outcome (Duke, 2025); the other was not (Clemson, 2024).
So for Bradley, at least, the Final Four is a goal — but it’s not the one that’s immediately in front of him.
“We definitely have that in the back of our minds,” Bradley said. “You want to get there. But I think game by game, personally.”
That’s the right mentality. If your mindset is “Final Four or bust,” you’re more apt to stumble somewhere along the way. As Arizona fans know, no opponent can be overlooked. Nothing is promised.
Arizona guard Jaden Bradley (0) puts up a shot during the second half against Iowa State in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Tournament, March 13, 2026, in Kansas City, Mo.
But it sure is tempting to dream.
Breaks of the game
This Arizona team has what it takes to go to the Final Four (minimally) and win the national championship (ideally). But doing either or both also requires good fortune — a factor that is out of your control.
As March Madness begins, some of the competitors for the crown already have suffered unfortunate breaks.
Texas Tech, one of two teams to beat Arizona this season, lost superstar forward JT Toppin to a torn ACL. The Red Raiders are just 3-3 without him — 3-4 if you include the game in which he got hurt.
North Carolina lost projected top-five pick Caleb Wilson on Feb. 10. The Tar Heels are 5-3 since — 5-4 if you include that game, much of which he played with a broken hand.
UNC’s hated rival, Duke, has lost two starters to injury. Point guard Caleb Foster has a foot fracture and is out indefinitely — possibly the rest of the season. Center Patrick Ngongba might be back after missing the ACC Tournament because of his own foot issue.
The Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament anyway. But they won’t enter the NCAA Tournament at full strength. Not that the selection committee factored that into its overall seeding; Duke is No. 1, Arizona No. 2, for reasons I will never understand.
Another of the 1-seeds, Michigan, lost backup guard L.J. Cason to a torn ACL. Cason was a rotation regular, averaging 18.6 minutes and 8.4 points per game. Michigan lost in the final of Big Ten Tournament and fell behind Arizona in the overall seeding ladder.
Texas Tech forward JT Toppin, far left, sits on the bench during the first half against Kansas State, Feb. 21, 2026, in Lubbock, Texas. Toppin is out for the season because of a torn ACL.
It’s karmically unwise to wish ill on an opponent. In a perfect world, everyone’s healthy and it’s best-on-best all the way through.
There’s no question, though, that those injuries put some of Arizona’s biggest threats in a disadvantageous position. Meanwhile, Bradley seemingly has avoided a worst-case scenario after banging up his left hand and wrist in the Big 12 Tournament title game.
It’s unlikely that the road to Indianapolis will be smooth and uneventful for the Wildcats. Arizona fans know better.
But if ever there was a year and a time and a team to navigate that path, it’s this year, this time and this team.
Fingers crossed. Knock on wood.
