Breaking down Arizona football’s game at Cincinnati, other Big 12 happenings | Michael Lev

“Lev it on the Field” is back for Game 10 against Cincinnati. It’s the Star’s unique look at Arizona’s upcoming football matchup and other happenings around the Big 12 through the eyes of UA beat reporter-turned-columnist Michael Lev. Away we go ...

One of Danny Gonzales’ many goals as defensive coordinator of the Wildcats is to change what people think when they hear the phrase, “This is Arizona football.”

Gonzales wants to alter the perception of the program. He wants to elevate expectations.

Brent Brennan and his squad are working on it — and having success. Arizona is 6-3 — bowl-eligible for just the third time in nine seasons — heading into Saturday’s game at No. 25 Cincinnati.

But if they really want to change what “This is Arizona football” means, the Wildcats need to show up and compete from start to finish.

Since I started on the UA football beat in December 2015, I’ve seen Arizona lose this type of game multiple times in blowout fashion.

It’s always in the middle of November or later. It’s always on the road. It’s usually in a colder climate.

Ready for the roll call? You might want to cover your eyes.

– Nov. 19, 2016: 42-17 loss at Oregon State

– Nov. 18, 2017: 48-28 loss at Oregon

– Nov. 17, 2018: 69-28 loss at Washington State

– Nov. 16, 2019: 34-6 loss at Oregon

– Nov. 19, 2021: 44-18 loss at WSU

– Nov. 23, 2024: 49-28 loss at TCU

The average margin of defeat in those games — all preceding Senior Day and/or the Territorial Cup and carrying no obvious motivational touch point — was 26.8 points. Yikes.

I excluded 2020 from the list because that pseudo-season did not follow any scheduling norms.

In 2022, Arizona won its final road game, 34-28 at UCLA. That was the beginning of the program’s turnaround under Jedd Fisch.

The ‘23 Wildcats were immune from recent history and lingering perceptions. They prevailed in their final pre-ASU road game, 34-31 at Colorado, part of a season-ending seven-game win streak.

You’d like to think Saturday’s game at Cincinnati will be more like that than the others.

A win, or even a close loss, would help Gonzales achieve his objective.

A 26-point wipeout would suggest it’s the same old Arizona, despite the Wildcats’ recent winning ways.

Take that for data!

Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita is tied with Nick Foles and Willie Tuitama for the most touchdown passes in UA history.

But Fifita took a swifter, shorter route to 67. And if he sticks around for another season, he’ll put more distance between himself and those two than the gap between the trio that’s tied for first and the next man up (Khalil Tate, 57).

Fifita has thrown 67 TD passes in 36 games, 30 of which were starts. He needed 1,067 pass attempts to get there for a TD rate of 6.3%.

Foles appeared in 35 games, 33 of which were starts. He attempted 1,396 passes as a Wildcat. His TD rate: 4.8%.

Tuitama suited up 40 times, with 38 starts. He threw 1,276 passes. His TD rate was 5.3%.

Fifita has averaged 2.2 touchdown passes per start. Assuming he stays healthy and wants to play another year here, he’ll make at least 16 more appearances — 17 with a bowl game in 2026.

Even if it’s the former, Fifita would throw 35 more TD passes. That would give him 102 for his career. Not too shabby.

Foles’ UA yardage record of 10,011 also would fall, likely in Game 3 or 4 of next year. Fifita has averaged 265.3 passing yards per start. With 16 more starts at that pace, he’d finish his college career with 12,399 yards.

Of course, Fifita couldn’t care less about any of this as long as the Wildcats keep winning.

(Rincon) Market report

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Going up: Mobile quarterbacks

There aren’t many true pocket passers like Foles anymore. Arizona will face yet another dual-threat quarterback this week in Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby, who ranks 17th in the Big 12 with 453 rushing yards and is tied for fourth with eight rushing touchdowns. BYU’s Bear Bachmeier and Houston’s Conner Weigman are tied for second with nine TDs apiece. Iowa State’s Rocco Becht also has eight. Kansas State’s Avery Johnson has seven. Johnson is one of six conference quarterbacks with at least 343 rushing yards, led by Utah’s Devon Dampier at 520. ASU’s Jeff Sims has 330 after a 228-yard outburst at ISU on Nov. 1. As UA offensive coordinator Seth Doege put it: “If you don’t have quarterback run game nowadays, it’s tough.”

Going down: Baylor admin

Baylor is embroiled in another off-field scandal. Athletic Director Mack Rhoades, who was also the chair of the College Football Playoff committee, took a leave of absence Thursday. During Baylor’s Sept. 20 game vs. ASU, Rhoades reportedly grabbed and scolded tight end Michael Trigg for wearing a different-colored undershirt than his teammates. New allegations surfaced this week that are “related to a violation of the faith-based university’s policies and practices,” Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger reported. Rhoades presumably would have been the person who ultimately decided head coach Dave Aranda’s fate. Now Rhoades himself faces an uncertain future.

A question from my X

“Obviously Arizona winning is the focus. But in order for Arizona to improve its bowl bid, which teams should we be rooting against most?” — @CatbusAZ via X/Twitter

The Wildcats are not mathematically eliminated from the Big 12 Championship Game. It would require winning out and getting help, but it’s not impossible.

Is it realistic? Probably not. So how does Arizona move up in the bowl-game pecking order?

UA is currently tied with TCU, Baylor and Kansas State at 3-3 in Big 12 play. The Wildcats face the Bears next week, so they can knock Baylor down a notch themselves. The Bears’ other two games are at home but difficult: versus Utah (4-2) and Houston (5-2).

TCU finishes at BYU (5-1), at Houston and vs. Cincinnati (5-1). No gimmes there.

Kansas State should win two of its last three: at Oklahoma State (0-6), at Utah, vs. Colorado (1-6). But the Manhattan Wildcats lost in Tucson and are currently 4-5. At 7-5, Arizona arguably would have a better résumé.

I don’t have to tell UA fan to root against ASU (4-2), but it’d help Arizona’s cause if the Sun Devils were to stumble vs. West Virginia (2-5) or at Colorado. That would set up the possibility of Arizona leapfrogging ASU via the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Threads

Sometimes the best uniforms are the simplest. Texas Tech is wearing black helmets, black jerseys and white pants for its Senior Day, and the look just works — from the “TT” symbol on the right upper thigh to the while lettering (with a red outline) on the jersey to the thick white stripe bisecting the helmet. Arizona, meanwhile, is wearing its “Storm Trooper” all-whites to contrast Cincinnati’s all-blacks. That’s as clean a kit as you’ll find in college football. It’s also the same ensemble the Wildcats wore when they clubbed Colorado 52-17 in Boulder.

What he said ...

“Cincinnati ... is the best football team we’ve played this year. The quarterback is the best quarterback we’ve seen so far. This is the most team speed I think we’ve seen.” — Brennan

What he meant ...

“You think I’m just blowing smoke up the Bearcats’ you-know-whats, right? Well, you know who’s No. 1 in the Big 12 in yards per play, yards per carry and yards per pass attempt? That would be Cincinnati. You know who’s thrown the fewest interceptions and been sacked the fewest times? Also Cincinnati. I’m telling you, this team is legit. We’re about to find out whether we are, too.”

The other side

“They’re trying to get it out every time that you’re running the ball. They’re a good defense. The stats speak for themselves. We’ve got to go out there and execute or else it’ll be a long day for us.” — Sorsby on Arizona’s defense

Pick to click (aka #fadelev)

Does Vegas think BYU is overrated? This week’s spread suggests as much. The 12th-ranked Cougars were just 3.5-point favorites vs. TCU as of this writing. The Horned Frogs are a solid member of the Big 12’s middle class at 6-3, although they’re 2-2 on the road. TCU is looking to rebound after mostly outplaying Iowa State before blowing a 17-6 fourth-quarter lead last week. BYU is seeking a bounce-back, as well, after getting a reality check at Texas Tech. The Cougars are 4-0 at home. It’s a nighttime kickoff in Provo. The value is too good to pass up. Give me BYU. (season record: 5-4)

One last thing

The UA locker room was a happy place after Arizona rallied to beat Kansas and secure bowl eligibility.

But Brennan wanted to make sure his Wildcats weren’t feeling satisfied. So he quickly pivoted to what’s next in his postgame address.

“We just kept playing,” Brennan told the team, per a video posted by Arizona Football. “But I’ll tell you this: I don’t know about y’all, but six ain’t enough for me!”

This was Brennan’s “We’re on to Cincinnati” moment. It was a wise move by the head coach, who knew he’d have to push all the motivational buttons to get the Wildcats in the right frame of mind to avoid a letdown and go toe-to-toe with the Bearcats.

Although the Wildcats already have reached six wins — a critical benchmark in Brennan’s second year after a desultory first season — they shouldn’t feel satisfied. Not after starting 4-1. Not while sitting at 6-3.

Seven victories ought to be the worst-case scenario heading into Bowl Game TBD. Depending on health and other factors, eight could be in play.

As Brennan later told the team: “We can do whatever we dream we can do.”